ISLAMABAD, 20 December 2004 — A year after two attempts to kill him, the threat to Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf remains as strong as ever and fears of disastrous fallout should assassins finally find their mark have not diminished. Last December’s assassination bids set off alarms in the West at the possibility of losing a pivotal ally in the war on terror. Three years into this struggle, Islamic extremism in Pakistan and its nuclear rivalry with India, along with the situation in the Middle East, are still seen in capitals around the world as among the most dangerous threats to global security. Some progress has been made in tracking down militants determined to kill Musharraf, but his part in the equation remains under scrutiny and the next year will be crucial to whether he can make real progress toward domestic and regional stability.
Last week, Musharraf returned from an international tour that took in Latin America, the United States, Britain and France. The lengthy trip, which he will have hoped will have shown his confidence in his hold of power at home, brought predictable reiterations of support from his key international allies. But views in Pakistan on his progress since seizing power remain mixed and analysts say Western governments will have privately made clear that serious concerns still need to be addressed. “The coming year will pose the greatest challenges to Musharraf,” said political commentator Najam Sethi. “Decisions on major controversial issues will have to be taken and cemented.”
Optimists see signs of progress by Musharraf toward ensuring future domestic stability through reconciliation with liberal opponents. Prospects improved when the husband of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was freed from jail in November. But opinions are divided as to whether Musharraf is simply trying to divide the liberal opposition from its Islamic militant allies for short-term gain or is genuinely attempting to address concerns about the effects of his curbs on democracy. Karachi University’s Professor Mutahir Ahmed said Musharraf did appear to be trying to patch up the rift with Bhutto, a natural ally for his vision of a progressive and moderate Pakistan — not least to reduce his own political isolation. “He needs to show Pakistanis and the international community that this is not a dictatorial government and his policies are basically supported by democratic forces,” he said. Critics argue that by freeing Asif Ali Zardari, Musharraf is only trying to mute criticism of his plan to go back on a pledge to give up his role of army chief by the end of the year. While foreign allies are quietly critical of Musharraf’s failure to democratize, improve human rights or ensure benefits of economic progress are spread to the poor, he has little to fear by way of sanction if he does not give up his uniform. “There will be some mutters of concern in European capitals and Washington,” said a European diplomat. “But nothing more, given that Musharraf is considered indispensable at the moment and there’s no civilian alternative seen as credible.”
Foreign governments have been heartened by his gradual progress in the past year toward rapprochement with India, as well as his successes in cracking down on extremist groups. Serious worries remain about the slow progress toward addressing the root causes of extremism. These include widespread poverty and corruption and an unwillingness to cut ties with fundamentalist groups. Sethi said Musharraf’s claim in Washington to have broken the back of al Qaeda in Pakistan was clearly overblown. He said Musharraf could find himself under much more international pressure should Osama Bin Laden’s group succeed in mounting another Sept. 11-style attack on the United States or if indeed he were to suffer another attempt on his life.
