The crisis in Pakistan’s largest province of Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan and Iran, has for now been defused. Fortunately steps on the political and security front have been taken. The possibility of a potentially disastrous military operation has been averted. The chief of army staff has ordered an immediate DNA test of the captain accused of raping the lady doctor, the restoration work and protection of a national strategic asset has begun, the dialogue continues with the politically important Baloch sardars plus other important political parties. The political track is leading Islamabad’s response to the Balochistan crisis. The necessary security track is also present, but only as one dimension of a broader state objective to pre-empt any deterioration of the security situation.
The independent media yet again played an important role. It presented the many sides of the Balochistan crisis. It focused on the rocket attacks on Sui, on the brutal crime of rape which also became the trigger for this round of attacks, on the history and legitimacy of Baloch grievances, on the inability of the central government to protect the reserves and the supply lines of a strategic national asset, on the various politically disgruntled groups in Balochistan, on the need to address the genuine demands of the Baloch, and finally on the grave dangers of opting for a force-first option.
However given the current level of resentment in pockets of Balochistan, Islamabad’s attempt to defuse the crisis may not guarantee complete peace. Only it reduces the probability of any worsening of the security situation. On the political front, the continuous engagement approach of the Pakistan Muslim League President Chaudary Shujaat Hussain, aided by the Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Balochistan Mushahid Hussain, has prevented breakdown of communication between the center and the Baloch sardars including Akbar Bugti and Sardar Mengal.
Perhaps the most significant step taken by the Pakistan Muslim League and supported by President Musharraf was the setting up of the Parliamentary Committee on Balochistan. It was formed with the agreement of both the National Assembly and the Senate. Its members included representative of all the ruling and opposition parties of Balochistan. Having worked as a bipartisan body, from October to January, the committee has prepared a report giving over two dozen recommendations on what steps must be taken to redress the Baloch grievances. Early indications are that the federal government believes most of the recommendations must be implemented.
The whole process of the committee’s formation, its functioning and its output may prove to be a signpost toward better management of centre-province and state-society relations. The committee functioned as a professional and rational political body examining the problem on its merits and within constitutional parameters. If its recommendations are actually implemented, the committee may become a model for handling similar problems.
Other interesting developments also flowed from Islamabad’s handling of the 12-day-long Balochistan crisis. First, a genuine civil-military debate and dialogue took place on Balochistan. The army, given its training, had viewed the necessity to immediately deploy force to defuse the deteriorating situation. The civilian politicians advocated the need to remain engaged in a political dialogue with the Baloch politicians. There was a consensus on opting for moving forward with the committee’s work without compromising on the security of the Sui and the surrounding areas.
Unless you learn from history, you are doomed to repeat old mistakes and move in circles. The post-October developments in Balochistan do indicate that the state is perhaps willing to learn from the past and adopt a policy that will break the circular movements that have marked the Balochistan policy. Clearly there is progress toward resolving a lingering conflict and not merely containing it. Economic benefits must accompany political dialogue in Balochistan. Only this will convince the Baloch that they too have a stake in the progress and stability of Pakistan.
Only a modern and efficient state, managed by a credibly functioning democratic political system could manage the many complex problems that nations are confronted with the world over.
Given Pakistan’s share of the problems, its need for a modern state and a democratic system is more compelling.
Although the initial handling of Balochistan by the state and ruling political party has been encouraging, the committee’s work must be taken further and must be utilized by the centre to build confidence between the centre, the people and the politicians of Balochistan. Alongside this process of confidence-building and trust building, the state must take steps to ensure that its writ runs in all areas of Balochistan.
