A major Israeli ground offensive on Gaza seems inevitable, with Israeli officials saying the army seeks to carry out wide-scale raids and reoccupy Palestinian areas near the 21 Jewish settlements to be evacuated next month. Whatever the dimensions of the Israeli raid, we know it will be big and it will mean the official end to the truce announced in February. That Israel has not launched a large-scale offensive into the Gaza Strip since the death of Yasser Arafat last year had raised hopes for Middle East peace. But a new assault on Gaza will dash any such hopes. Even before the move into Gaza, which Israel claims will be aimed at doing Mahmoud Abbas’ job — which Tel Aviv says is cracking down on activists, the truce was teetering. Palestinians and Israelis are once again fighting. A Palestinian bombing and a rocket attack killed six Israelis last week followed by the killing of seven Hamas men in Israeli strikes. With Palestinians killing Palestinians the confusion has been compounded.
To rein in the activists, Palestinian Authority police fought a gunbattle with Hamas members on the streets of Gaza City on Friday in the worst inter-Palestinian fighting in recent years. In the midst of these crises, Israel is about to move in on Gaza in a major assault, triggering a real tough test for the Palestinian Authority since its creation in 1993. Abbas knows that to help save the PA he must avert an Israeli Army incursion into Gaza. He is urging Hamas and kindred activists to halt attacks on Israel and return to the truce. But he has also blamed Israel for the cease-fire’s near collapse. There is good reason for this. Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza is being viewed as an attempt to cement its hold on the West Bank. Such fears have been fueled by Israel’s failure to heed the road map’s demand for a freeze on settlement expansion in the West Bank and its building of the vast separation wall in the territory. However, Israel is not the only problem facing Abbas; he must also contend with Hamas. The PA’s dealings with Hamas have deteriorated since Abbas announced the indefinite postponement of parliamentary elections scheduled for July which Hamas believes it would have done exceptionally well in. Hamas has described Abbas’ latest offer to join a national unity government as a ploy to avoid commitment to the elections, and has rejected the offer.
Israel and the United States are concerned that Hamas could seize control of Gaza after the planned evacuation but Abbas needs Hamas’ cooperation to keep order. Meanwhile, the retaliations continue. A Hamas commander was shot dead yesterday as projectiles rain down on Israeli targets. Ariel Sharon has vowed not to withdraw from Gaza under fire and to keep his promise he will shortly invade Gaza. The only question is when it will be launched. It might be postponed until after the previously unannounced visit by Condoleezza Rice, her fifth trip to the region in five months. The visit underscores the seriousness of the situation. It is doubtful though that Rice carries with her the willingness of the Bush administration to get Israel to undo the wall, reverse its settlement expansion policy, or refrain from invading Gaza.
