President Bush’s decision to lift sanctions on India acquiring nuclear technology will be seen in India as a triumph for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on his first visit to the US. But to the rest of the world, it says much more; it says that a new superpower axis has been created. India and the US have formed a new relationship — a special relationship. It is one that has major strategic implications for Asia. The fact that Washington is prepared to overturn the sanctions it imposed after India’s weapons tests in 1998, providing it with the latest nuclear technology, and to do so despite India’s refusal to sign the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT), despite India’s nuclear ambitions beyond the field of electricity generation, speaks volumes. This is “most favored nation” status of the type that only Israel has so far enjoyed. Clearly, as far as Washington is concerned, there is one non-proliferation law for those it likes and another for the likes of Iran, North Korea and those it distrusts.
Trust is the key word as far as Washington is concerned. It clearly trusts India unreservedly, not just on the nuclear issue, but on virtually all others. Bush’s words to Prime Minister Manmohan — “the relationship between our two nations has never been stronger” — is proof of that. The lifting of nuclear sanctions is merely the icing on the cake. It is the proof of a new relationship that promises also to bear fruit in increased collaboration on high-tech and space research, increased trade between the two countries and increased political collaboration — both in Washington’s war on terrorism, but also strategically in Asia. For this is nothing less than a calculated counter balance, by both governments, to China’s growing power in Asia, in particular its growing interest in Central Asia. The Great Game has taken yet another a twist; where previously the US allied itself with Pakistan against Soviet potential domination of the continent, it has now allied itself with India against potential Chinese domination. As part of that alliance, it will be no surprise if Washington backs India’s bid for a permanent seat on the Security Council when reform of the UN becomes an active issue.
This new close relationship will not go down well with all Indians, but it will with a substantial majority, especially the middle class that previously supported the BJP. Manmohan is likely to see his popularity rise. But despite the fact that in the long term China has most to worry about this new alliance, it is across the border to the northwest that concerns will be felt most deeply. The lifting of nuclear sanctions and the new relationship is likely to stir fears across Pakistan that President Musharraf’s loyalty to the US, his support for President Bush’s war against terrorism, has been for nothing. That may well have the opposite effect of what Washington wants. It will increase anti-US sentiment among the Pakistani military, reinforce the political opposition, and pile the pressure on Musharraf to ditch his pro-American line. He is not going to do that. But this is going to make life so much more difficult for him — and with it delivery on the anti-terrorism front.
