LONDON, 27 July 2005 — Despite putting him back in the dock over the Iraq war, the London bombings have bolstered British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s political standing. But the boost to his image may yet prove short-lived. An opinion poll yesterday showed Blair’s rating as leader had soared to its second-highest level — even as most voters think his decision to back the US-led invasion has made Britain more of a target for terrorists.

Blair, who won a third term in May, proved his statesmanlike credentials with a firm but measured response to the July 7 bombings that killed 52 people and the failed attacks of July 21, analysts said.

That came on top of deft handling of Britain’s presidency of the Group of Eight nations, a European Union crisis and London’s victory over Paris to host the 2012 Olympics.

But enhanced stature will not necessarily translate into more years in office for a prime minister who most commentators expect to quit by 2008, analysts added.

His longevity will ultimately depend on whether his Labour Party sees him as a liability, as some activists did in May elections. Local elections next year could help decide that.

“I think he has begun his third term extraordinarily well and far better than anybody, including himself, expected, but it’s always very wrong to imagine in politics that current trends will continue,” said Blair biographer Anthony Seldon. “He has very difficult times up ahead, not least with terrorism and with Iraq, which is not going well, and with the economy, which is not going well,” he added.

The political fallout from the 2003 invasion of Iraq has plagued Blair. His parliamentary majority was reduced at a May election partly due to voter anger over the war. Blair faced a barrage of questions at a news conference on Tuesday over links between the bombings and the war but he stood firm, giving a passionate defense of his policies.

“We should not change one single bit of any policy in response to terrorism,” he said. “That is a disastrous signal to send out.” In a Populus poll in the Times newspaper, 30 percent of people — and 48 percent of Labour supporters — believed Blair should reconsider his publicly stated intention to stand down at the end of his current term in 2009 or 2010. Blair had a rating as leader of 5.55 out of 10, his second highest, although 64 percent of people said the Iraq war had “increased the risk of terrorist attacks” like those in London.

Blair has said he wants to serve a full third term of four to five years and has promised an “orderly transition” of power. Finance minister Gordon Brown, widely viewed as Blair’s successor, is keen to take the reins and many analysts now expect the premier to stand down in 2007 or 2008.

But recent events have suggested Blair may keep Brown waiting longer than he expected. Most commentators once thought a planned 2006 referendum on a EU constitution would bring the natural end to Blair’s rule. France’s rejection of the treaty, which prompted the EU to put it on ice, saved Blair. And a crisis over the bloc’s future financing has handed the prime minister the chance he has always wanted to shape the debate on Europe’s future.

In the wake of the London bombings, he is also enjoying a cease-fire with his political opponents who have vowed to support new anti-terrorism measures, helping to compensate for Blair’s slimmer majority in Parliament. “There is a great desire at a time when the country faces such great danger, to work together,” Conservative Party leader Michael Howard said on Tuesday. “It’s important we approach these difficult issues in a spirit of consensus.” Analysts said it was difficult to predict the impact of further deadly attacks on Britain but the issue of Iraq could yet damage Blair in local elections.

Much of Britain, including London districts, holds local elections in May. Labour candidates will be able to gauge whether their leader wins or loses them votes. “The reason and only reason he would step down sooner than he wanted would be if a large proportion of the Labour Party decided he’d be a serious liability if he carried on much longer,” said Peter Kellner of pollsters YouGov.

“If Labour does extremely badly that will reopen the question about how long he should stay on ... Of the foreseeable events that will be the one that will be the great staging post in terms of his future,” he added.