Over 2,000 years ago, the Chinese began playing the game of Go. This ancient game is based upon placing groups of stones onto a board so that the stones connect and form strong clusters. What does the opponent, who must carefully follow his own groups as well as his adversary’s, refer to as the “life and death” element in the game, are situations that occur when an area with stones is contained to a limited space.
What is occurring in the Asian region is a sophisticated form of this game with the United States challenging China. China has a strong alliance with Russia, who has been selling them arms, military technology. Russia even agreed to begin joint military exercises with China later this year, in spite of diplomatic messages from the White House questioning this relationship. While Russia is a problem, the recent moves by China in the Middle East are threatening. Due to the unparalleled growth of its economy, China is taking action to ensure it has oil without any interruption. One of these moves is toward Iran. Last November, China negotiated a $100 billion contract with Iran to purchase some 10 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually. To transport this gas and the oil purchases, that are forthcoming from joint participation between these two countries, the Iranian Tanker Company needs to purchase another 87 vessels by 2010. To prevent any disruption, China has adopted a “string of pearls” strategy that will provide protected sealanes from the Middle East to China’s coast.
The election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as Iranian president has added a new element to the Chinese-Iranian relationship. Ahmadinejad who is an outspoken critic of the United States is openly embracing a closer relationship with China on economic and diplomatic fronts.
On the other side of this game are the moves being made by the United States. The US-Japanese joint statement issued earlier this year, stating that Taiwan was their “common security concern” was just one of many signals that Japan is being aligned on the US side. The anticipated revision of the Japanese Constitution, removing Article 9 that limited the use of military forces, is opening the door to increased military cooperation between these two countries. In addition, the Japanese government is proceeding with an anti-missile program that would protect that country in the event of a missile attack. Now, India has been added to the US equation, economically, diplomatically and militarily. From an economic viewpoint many investors are sighting India as a challenge to China. According to a survey of multinational companies conducted by CII-A.T. Kearney, almost 70 percent of these companies said there is a high likelihood they would make medium— and long-term investments in India.
From a military vantage, the United States has already begun its Indian program. Last month, they signed a 10-year defense agreement that will involve joint weapons production, cooperation in missile defense and the F-16 fighter jets. Even if President Bush is unsuccessful in persuading Congress to alter the US Nonproliferation Act that stands in the way of selling India sensitive nuclear technology, the plans are being made to shore up India’s military capabilities.
Both China and the United States are using every means at their disposal to win this game. Providing the economic pressure and diplomacy works, the military option will not be used. However, the escalation of this option on both sides is very dangerous. It stops being a board game when nuclear weapons are involved, at that point the game should be called a draw.
— Adrienne McPhail is an American journalist currently residing in Japan.
