The Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project has met an stumbling block. If the available indications are to be taken seriously, the project, for all practical purposes, has either been shelved already or at least has been put on a back burner. This is despite the fact that the pipeline offers a win-win situation to all the three countries of the region and presented a viable, economic and pragmatic solution to the region’s energy woes. The project also carried a peace windfall with it.
Ominous clouds were on the horizon on the issue for a considerable period of time. The US intransigence in opposing the pipeline, so as to further its political objective of isolating Tehran as completely as possible, was evident for long. Initially it appeared that India and Pakistan were committed to the project despite sustained US pressure.
But sooner than later it started to become apparent that the pressure and indeed carrots were getting too big to be ignored. First when during the Washington visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the nuclear deal was offered to India, to supplement its growing energy requirements, analysts felt that the offer could not be without strings. And indeed that was the case. There was a price to be paid for the nuclear deal - to stay away from the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.
Soon first signs of dissensions within the Delhi camp on the issue started to emerge. Natwar Singh, the Indian foreign minister, an old timer and not approving of the pro-Washington tilt in New Delhi, was relieved of his responsibilities. He was a thorn in the way of the pro-US lobby in New Delhi.
However, still more was in store. During the last Cabinet reshuffle, Singh decided to “elevate” the ebullient Petroleum Minister Mani Shanker Aiyer to Culture and Youth Affairs. Mani, was known to be a left winger within the Congress and a socialist, was an ardent advocate of the pipeline.
And Mani was replaced by Murli Deora, regarded to be having close ties with Washington and having the required net work to pursue India’s interests in the right manner. On the other hand, “Aiyar was not only determined to push ahead with the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, to which the US had voiced strong objection on the ground that it would impede its efforts to isolate Iran, but he was actively putting in place an Asian gas grid that would link India with Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, China, and Myanmar,” wrote Indian analyst Prem Shankar Jha in a recent piece. The long-term energy security plan that Mani was beginning to implement would have shifted the control of the energy markets in this region away from the US, analysts had openly felt. In contrast to Mani, the new incumbent at the Ministry of Petroleum in Delhi, Deora could be less outspoken in his support of the pipeline.
India it seems is pursuing some other options too, so as to ensure energy security in the years to come. On one hand it is looking increasingly toward Riyadh to fulfil its energy needs and on the other it was also pursuing interests in the US supported Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline — indeed not the most economical of the available options.
At the same time it continues to discuss the nuclear deal with the US, so as to balance out its current energy mix — heavily lopsided toward fossil fuel. Indeed it has the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline as a bargaining chip on the negotiations table with Washington on the issue.
Pakistan still seems to be pushing ahead with the project. It says it would still go ahead with the project, even if India was reluctant to do so.