The move yesterday of Thailand’s Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to step down was the only course open to him. There was no alternative since he had failed to win a decisive victory in Sunday’s snap general election. Had he tried to struggle on, the country would have been brought to its knees by opposition strikes and demonstrations that might easily take on a momentum of their own and bring the country either to military rule or revolution. Thailand’s peace and prosperity necessitated that he go. It is ironic, of course, that whereas in the UK Tony Blair can win an election with just 37 percent of the vote and no one questions the outcome, in Thailand, 57 percent is not enough. These were, however, special circumstances. Having been accused of corruption, Thaksin was himself the issue. He had to win decisively. He failed. Too many people rejected him. However, Thaksin’s statement that he will not accept the premiership when Parliament meets does not mean that a constitutional crisis has been avoided.
The opposition may well demand that he not be allowed to stay on as caretaker pending the appointment of a new prime minister. More importantly, it is certain to insist on fresh elections. Having boycotted last Sunday’s contest, it is going to want to be in the new Parliament. There is no way it will accept one filled exclusively with Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party which, even after run-off votes in 38 constituencies where Thai Rak Thai candidates failed to reach that 20 percent threshold, is the inevitable result of the boycott. Doubtless too, the opposition thinks it can win a new poll. That though, may be too far-fetched a conclusion. Sunday’s election was a vote about Thaksin, and for many a vote against him. It was not a vote in favor of any particular party. The opposition moreover, consists of more than one party. In a new contest in which all parties take part, the Thai Rak Thai may lose votes, but that is no guarantee that any particular opposition party will win. Given the strong showing of the Thai Rak Thai in the north of the country on Sunday and the possibility that Bangkok’s middle classes, while turning so decisively against Thaksin because of the allegations of corruption but not necessarily breaking with his party, may well return to the fold now that he has resigned.
It is quite possible that it could still end up as the largest party or even the winner in any new contest. Equally, it is just as likely that no party will win an outright majority in a new poll. It is speculation to say what the outcome might be in fresh elections that have not even been called. Nonetheless, fresh elections are the only way forward if Thailand is to put this political crisis behind it. An all-Thai Rak Thai Parliament would be cause for further anger. A new government is needed, one that can bring about national reconciliation, one that is accepted as legitimate, even by those who vote for parties that end up in opposition. Sunday’s vote, with the north voting for Thaksin and the capital and the south voting against him, shows a country deeply divided. There is the question too of Muslim alienation. A new government will also have to undo the damage that Thaksin’s iron fist policy toward Muslim activists in the south has done.
