It was difficult to believe what I was reading in the press early last week on Iraq. Both President George Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair — in their different ways and different language — and with a real difference between them over Arab/Israel, were suggesting one more heave and victory could be in sight. Did they, and their key advisers, really believe that? Are both leaders being shielded from the truth in Iraq to some extent? It was embarrassing to behold and very dangerous.

The guidance from Washington is that President Bush’s formal response to the bipartisan Iraq Study Group’s report, much of which I agreed with and its political astuteness I admired, will come early in January. It is known the White House will rule out some of the report’s key proposals. Condoleezza Rice has made it clear she does not agree with the idea of direct talks with Iran and Syria, an option also endorsed by Tony Blair.

Most unwisely, I should have thought, the president is backing instead a highly controversial plan put to him by Gen. Jack Keane, a former vice-chief of staff at the Pentagon, and Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute, yet another conservative think-tank. They write in their proposals “Victory is still an option in Iraq.”

Like Sen. John McCain, a likely Republican presidential candidate, they suggest an extra 50,000 troops should be deployed to Iraq as reinforcements for the 140,000 already there. The extra combat brigades would be given the job of attempting to regain control of parts of Baghdad and the Sunni provinces for the Coalition and the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki. The message from General Keane is that the way forward is not diplomatic but increased use of force. He is seriously misguided.

Other senior American generals have been arguing that force levels should be increased — perhaps only for a limited period to produce a little leeway. This will risk being drawn further into the quagmire and suggest to the insurgents the occupation is being lengthened. I doubt if Congress or the American people will want to put their money on this particular horse. Surely after nearly four years it is too late for such a move? The idea has never been to hold down Iraq for very many years. Already 2,941 US troops have been killed in that country since May 2003.

Would it not take far more than an extra 50,000 to make a major difference? In August there was a huge operation to try to bring stability to Baghdad. At first rebel attacks dropped and then surged in September. In any case if a small district can be secured troops have to remain there to keep the lid on it. I line up with Colin Powell, the former secretary of state, who said on Dec. 17 that America was failing in Iraq and that troop increases should not take place, with reductions beginning in mid-2007.

It will be remembered on this side of the Atlantic, on Oct. 13, Gen. Sir Richard Dannatt, the chief of the general staff, told a newspaper that UK troops should leave Iraq “some time soon” as their presence was “exacerbating” the violence. The last point applies even more so to the American troops who use disproportionate force and have been slow to adopt “hearts and minds” tactics. The bombing of Fallujah will be remembered bitterly for years to come.

Tony Blair has returned from a bizarre five-day visit to the region. While, as always, I admire his energy and enthusiasm, the facts are that he is only likely to be prime minister for another five months, he has lost his political authority at home and his credibility has been destroyed by the debacle of Iraq.

He still rules out any quick withdrawal of British troops. “Don’t be under any doubt at all. British troops will remain until the job is done.”

Really? Is the nation being braced for a ten or twenty year commitment in Iraq? Of course not. As soon as the Americans start to come out the United Kingdom will do the same. We may have to wait for the next president of America to give the signal.

At the end of the week the president conceded that America is not winning in Iraq, a position not yet shared by all his senior advisers. Some of them still see victory just around the corner. One more heave!