After fifteen years of murderous chaos, Somalia was on the brink of peace. The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) had achieved what the squabbling warlords had failed so signally to do. They had brought stability and an end to violence in the capital Mogadishu and large areas of the country. They had not managed this purely by force of arms. There has been widespread support for their advance simply because of the stability and end to insecurity that they promised. The warlords had had their chance. Even when they finally agreed a government, they were incapable of agreeing on its establishment in Somalia itself; so Somalis were treated to the ridiculous spectacle of a government that could only meet safely on Kenyan soil.
From its position of strength, the UIC might reasonably have expected to come to a deal with the rump of the warlords whose toehold in Somalia is around the eastern town of Baidoa. An accommodation might have been reached which could have included the warlords in a new coalition with the UIC pending proper elections. Tragically, as has happened so often in Somalia’s history, outside forces believed they had a vested interest in the country. Ethiopia has long considered Somalia within its sphere of influence, not least as part of its ongoing conflict with Eritrea.
Thus Addis Ababa has thrown its military weight behind the rump of warlord government in Baidoa. It is widely assumed that for their part, the Eritreans have been assisting the UIC. Ethiopia did itself little service by denying flatly that there were more than a few “military advisers” assisting the warlord government. Within hours, a BBC correspondent had reported seeing a vast convoy of Ethiopian troops and materiel just outside Baidoa. With yesterday’s attack on Mogadishu airport by its jets, Addis Ababa has finally abandoned the lie of noninvolvement.
There is now fierce fighting in the east of the country with Ethiopian troops directly engaged with UIC forces. Inevitably, the greatest impact of these clashes has been on luckless civilians who are fleeing the fighting. Somalis, stricken first by drought and more recently by floods, are in little position to sustain themselves. Already the International Red Cross is predicting a major refugees exodus and another potential humanitarian disaster.
Washington is backing the warlords and their Ethiopian protectors because they are certain that the UIC is another Taleban that will harbor and foster Al-Qaeda terrorists. There is once again no attempt to analyze the real nature of the UIC or their outstanding success in a country for so long driven by internal conflict. The Bush White House is yet again driven by a simplistic and racist rationale to confront a Muslim party. The bigotry is reinforced by the fact that the Ethiopians are Christian.
Such dunderheaded foreign-policy assessments by Washington have already cost tens of thousands of lives. Thanks to this learn-nothing US administration, the price in blood seems set to rise yet further.
