In a Time magazine cover, Anwar Sadat's face was famously imposed on the Sphinx. At the time, Sadat's seemingly impulsive moves - which included expelling Soviet military advisors on the eve of war with Israel - bewildered American policy-makers. Sadat's clever chess playing, which resulted in a peace treaty with Israel at the cost of regional alienation, is a historic footnote. But today his story is relevant as Americans - particularly in Congress and the media - are at a loss to explain the direction of Saudi Arabian foreign policy.
Long characterized as cautious, Saudi foreign policy has traditionally worked to promote regional stability while simultaneously maintaining ties with the West - the United States in particular. While recent moves by Riyadh have not signaled a reverse of these policies, they have clearly confused many influential American observers. But these developments should be put in context. Even as crown prince, King Abdullah signaled that Saudi Arabia would not sit idly by and watch regional developments. Rather, Saudi Arabia would boldly interject itself in key regional matters in an attempt to reverse regional instability.
At the Beirut summit, Crown Prince Abdullah unveiled a peace initiative that aimed to resolve the Arab-Israeli imbroglio. In return for returning to the 1967 border, Israel was promised normalized relations with the Arab world. Through intense diplomacy, Saudi Arabia managed to secure the support of the entire Arab world - no small feat given the region's penchant for division. While the Abdullah peace plan was dismissed by Israel and largely overlooked by the United States, it offered a comprehensive solution to a problem, which has long hindered regional political and economic development.
As king, Abdullah has continued to pursue a bold foreign policy. Most recently, Saudi Arabia has engaged in brokering intra-Palestinian harmony, hosting a highly-anticipated Arab summit, resolving the standoff in Lebanon, and bringing Iran and Syria into the diplomatic fold, all the while by maintaining ties with the Bush administration - which finds itself caught in an increasingly hostile and unenviable regional position.
But what many Americans do not know is what exactly Saudi Arabia is doing, nor how exactly it is positioning itself in the region. Some suggest the Kingdom, along with "Arab moderates" such as Egypt, is being encouraged by the Bush administration to ratchet up pressure on Tehran. Under this theory, the US is encouraging a regional sectarian split between Sunnis and Shiites - using Saudi Arabia and Egypt as tools in a game of divide and conquer. Further, under this doomsday scenario, the US is privately asking the Kingdom to provide arms to the March 14 coalition in Lebanon, topple the regime in Damascus, fund Sunni insurgents in Iraq once the US leaves, and prepare itself for military engagement with Iran . Subscribers to this theory offer Vice President Dick Cheney's recent visit to the Kingdom, the Makkah summit between Hamas and Fatah, and increased Saudi diplomatic activity as proof.
But this theory is fatally undermined by other developments - most notably the recent visit to Riyadh by Iranian President Ahmadinejad. This meeting suggests that in contrast to some theories, Saudi Arabia is actively seeking to minimize regional sectarian divisions sparked by Iraq and the recent Lebanese government standoff. Riyadh's engagement with Tehran, dire warnings about the consequences of sectarianism, efforts to broker a power-sharing deal in Beirut, and statements that it does not intend to assist any militia in Iraq offer evidence to the contrary.
Moreover, Saudi efforts to broker a cease-fire and power-sharing agreement between Palestinian factions should be taken at face value. Rather than aiming to distance Hamas from Iran - a task the Bush administration would gladly welcome - the Makkah talks simply provide the Palestinians and international community an opportunity to end the status quo. The status quo, it should be noted, has resulted in profound suffering for the Palestinian public and an inability to launch formal peace talks between Palestine, Israel, and the Quartet. The US has failed to break the stalemate, which cannot continue indefinitely.
Currently, despite the recent efforts of Secretary of State Rice, the US finds itself stuck. The situation in Iraq grows worse by the day. Lebanon cannot remain forever in purgatory. There are indications that despite US caution Israel is eager to talk to both the Palestinians and Syrians. And military confrontation with Iran will foment perhaps a catastrophic battle with Congress - not to mention its regional implications.
It bears noting that speculation and uncertainty is often helpful to diplomacy. Accordingly, perhaps American observers should focus not on the specifics of the Saudi agenda, but on the possible benefits it has to US interests. Recent Saudi diplomatic moves indicate that Riyadh, like the rest of the Arab world, finds the status quo extremely perilous, and as such is using its leadership role to promote peaceful solutions to the most daunting regional challenges. After all, progress on the Palestinian-Israeli peace process, engagement with Damascus and Tehran, and attentiveness to Lebanon were all key components of the Iraq Study Group report. In the absence of decisive, effective American leadership and diplomacy, the US desperately needs the assistance of its regional allies.
- David Dumke is political analyst and principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group. E-mail: [email protected].
