We are doomed to repeat history if we don’t learn from its lessons. Arab, American and Israeli leaders will share the same fate since they make the same mistakes. Allow me to explain.
Let’s start with the situation in the Middle East. Don’t you feel you have seen this movie before? Again and again! You don’t have to be an avid reader of history to remember that the same story was repeated in Vietnam, among other places. It is like someone borrowed an old scenario for a new movie.
Then, like now, the Americans played on a foreign playground by their rules ignoring and disregarding the host’s.
Trusting the best-equipped army in the world to easily win a war against one of the poorest and least prepared militias, they forgot that you need the other party to accept your game rules first. If they don’t, then it is your strength against theirs measured by the quality, not the quantity of traditional firepower.
Throughout history, hit and run militias have been able to defeat the superpowers of the day. Highly motivated local bands could win over unaccustomed traditional forces. In Ireland and America, for example, resistance groups fought and defeated British armies. In Afghanistan, indigenous tribes have beaten foreign invaders for centuries. The Greek, British, Soviet and American empires lost their advantage in the mountains and valleys of the rigid land. The Muslim empire won by and for the message, not by sword.
Back to the Vietnam lesson, the American Army marched in with its World War I and II and Korea War expertise, earned in the first half of the 20th century. Its accumulated power and experience were formidable by any standard. The sheer number of war gear — tanks, aircraft, ships and missiles — was more than enough to prevail over a primitive opponent. The only problem was the Vietcong did not go along with conventional ways. Instead, they fought with the tools and methods they knew best and suited their environment better.
From their underground tunnels, jungle hideouts and mountain caves, they surprised a sitting-duck enemy. On their bicycles, animals and feet they moved their arms through hidden routes from one place to another.
Like tigers they hid in the shades, watched and waited. When the enemy was least aware and expecting, they knocked him down, gained arms and hostages, and disappeared. You may burn, destroy and mass-murder, but all you do is increase world sympathy for your opponents and condemnation for your actions. More important, you drive local bystanders to the opposite camp.
Israel had similar lessons in Lebanon, but kept repeating the same mistakes. The first invasion of Lebanon in 1982 was followed by last summer’s. They lost in both conquests, the same way. The doctrine hasn’t changed. The traditional school still rules.
The Arabs are making similar blunders. Instead of changing the methodology to suit their capability and environment they keep trying to compete under the set rules. Billions of dollars were misplaced, taken away from critically needed development projects to stuff their armies with imported equipment. The balance of power was deliberately maintained in their opponents’ favor. No way would the Western powers allow sales of superior weaponry that would endanger them or Israel. Therefore, the only thing Arab armies have been good for is fighting each other or oppressing their own people, depriving them of human and civil rights.
To change the balance of power, Arab armies need to learn from their history, We need to change the military doctrine we were taught in foreign schools. Instead of following the Western rules we should invent our own. We don’t have to go the guerrillas’ way, but they could teach us a few valuable lessons. The traditional Iraqi Army with all its weapons, resources and numbers lost within days against the superior invaders. Dissolved into resistance groups, they fought better and cost the occupying forces more.
The Japanese martial art, Aikido, teaches us that the bigger and stronger your enemy, the worst you can make his fall and injury. The idea is to use your enemy’s size against him by leading his thrust to hard objects, such as walls or grounds.
You turn the table by utilizing your strengths, like maneuverability, lightness and speed, and exploiting your enemy’s weaknesses, such as heaviness, sluggishness, arrogance and ignorance.
The traditional doctrine of warfare today must evolve. Past and present experiences should have taught the American, Arab and Israeli leaders many vital lessons. Judging by their armies’ performance today, they are clearly unable or unwilling to change.
Reasons vary, but some are obvious. The arms industry has huge influence. Vested interests of politicians and legislators are keeping the old and invalid school in place with little or no meaningful adaptation. Unfortunately for the rest of us, history will keep repeating itself for a long time to come.
— Visit Dr. Khaled Batarfi’s blog at: http://kbatarfi.blogspot.com
