GENEVA, 19 April 2007 — The final “window of opportunity” for a new global free trade deal might just have slammed shut, according to analysts closely watching the World Trade Organization negotiations.
Having already missed countless deadlines in six years, top trading powers have now set themselves a year-end date for completing the Doha Round of commerce liberalization talks aimed at adding billions of dollars (euros) to the global economy and lifting millions of people worldwide out of poverty.
But for analysts, the most significant result of last week’s meeting of the WTO’s six most powerful members in New Delhi was how little attention was paid to a much more serious deadline only weeks away — the expiration of US President George W. Bush’s authority to send trade deals to Congress for a simple yes-or-note vote without amendments.
“Whatever sense of urgency that might have been perceived by negotiators has now been dispensed with,” said Sandra Polaski of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. “It seems like they just breezed by that June 30 deadline. There is no evidence that there is any political will to get this done.”
The Doha Round has stumbled since its inception in Qatar’s capital in 2001, largely because of the wrangling between rich and poor countries over eliminating farm trade barriers. Two high-profile summits — one in Mexico in 2003 and another in Hong Kong in 2005 — failed to deliver a breakthrough.
Another major effort collapsed last July, and WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy has been trying for months to rally negotiators to end the deadlock during what he called a “window of opportunity” before Bush’s so-called fast track powers expire.
After the end of June it will be much harder for any treaty to gain approval in the US, as Congress will have the ability to pick any agreement apart line by line. “Setting new deadlines has been the primary function of WTO negotiations over the last three years,” said Amy Barry, a spokeswoman for the aid agency Oxfam, which campaigns on behalf of the interests of poorer nations. “The focus on deadlines seems to be distracting from useful discussion of content.”
Keith Rockwell, Lamy’s spokesman, said Dec. 31 is not an official deadline as it has yet to be agreed on by the WTO’s 150 members. “But there is a recognition that external political factors will influence these negotiations, not least the 2008 US presidential election,” he said.
Polaski said the “surprise” in the negotiations last week among the US, EU, Australia, Brazil, India and Japan was the about-turn in the Bush administration’s strategy. Previously the idea had been that fast-track renewal would help spur the talks as they enter their final stretch, she argued. Now, she said, it seems that US Trade Representative Susan Schwab is counting on the blueprint of a deal persuading Congress to forfeit its right to amend the final agreement.