JEDDAH, 1 May 2007 — Perhaps the most important message sent to the Congress party from the three states that went to polls recently was that though it is the predominant national party it still couldn’t win an election on its own. It also proved without a shadow of doubt that all the talk of its grand revival was nothing but sheer hype by the sycophants embedded in the grand old party.

Blinkered vision and shortsighted policies rubbed with a heavy dose of sycophancy leads to a level of indulgent patronization, which was the tenor of the party after they had trumped the BJP in national polls and came to power with like-minded parties on a common minimum program.

But three years on, the people who had voted them to power are disillusioned by their lackadaisical approach toward growing problems faced by the country. And that’s what the Congress is paying for dearly with the euphoria of their electoral gains in 2004 having vanished with a triple whammy in the hustings. They should have learned after their Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur polls drubbing that even the common man can see through hot air and their vote has to be valued and earned and like shifting sand can sink them if they recede.

Unless a heavy reality check is done, Congress and its grand old men will continue to live in the clouds. The blinkers are still on and Congress is likely to run into more trouble in Uttar Pradesh — once its formidable bastion.

With the phased UP poll now in process, Congress in its infinite wisdom has gone to the polls alone. This despite the fact that their independent venture in Bihar not only wiped them out of the state politics, but also brought about the downfall of their trusted ally Lalu Prasad Yadav. Once again they are committing a similar mistake, especially with their standing in UP being extremely low in the face of caste politics.

The Uttarakhand polls showed the change with the upper caste switching to the BJP and the Dalits to Mayawati. The fallout of Uttarakhand can be expected in UP. After all the former had been carved out of the latter. If the Congress had expected a solid backing from the Muslims in the state then they are bound to be disappointed. Their votes are going either to Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav or Mayawati.

The battle for power in UP is a two-way fight between Mulayam’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with the BJP and the Congress among the also-rans. But BJP could be a spoiler in the event of the expected coalition government, and this is where Congress could have benefited if they had struck an alliance with the either of the two leading parties.

Most surveys have forecast a hung house for the 403-member assembly at the end of the seven-phase polling from April 7 to May 8. However, after the fifth round of voting, indications are that the BSP will emerge as the largest single party. Earlier, an opinion poll had given 145-156 seats to SP, 132-140 to BSP, 62-70 seats to BJP and around 24-30 seats to Congress.

A latest survey has, however, put BSP ahead of BJP with SP taking third place. The survey expects the BSP to finish with 150-160 seats. In contrast, the SP may end up with 85-95 seats. It also indicates that BJP will finish with more or less 106 seats. In the outgoing house, the SP has 142 members, followed by BSP (111), BJP (87), Congress (16) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (14).

Analysts believe the BSP’s surge is a direct result of Muslim community’s switch to the party. During the first two phases of elections, the SP’s Muslim support base was shaken but was still there. But when elections took place in the Muslim-dominated seats in the third phase it was evident that the community was voting largely for BSP. Apparently, Muslims in the Muslim-dominated districts of Moradabad, Bareilly, Shahjahanpur, Amroha, Bijnore and Rampur, which went to the polls in the third phase, threw their weight behind the BSP. Several of the 40-odd assembly constituencies in these districts hold the key to formation of the new UP government.

Experts say that the general perception among the people of the state cutting across communities except among the Yadavs, is that the government under Mulayam cannot be trusted. And Mayawati is the natural beneficiary. But despite this swing in her favor she will not be in a position to get a majority on her own and has to seek another party’s help to cobble a post-election alliance to form the government. The party that gets the support of Congress and smaller parties will be the one to form the next government.

Mayawati and Mulayam both will try not to enter into an alliance with the BJP. And it will be worth watching which party the BJP supports — SP or BSP — or who asks for its support first to rule the state in the event they emerge as the third largest bloc in the new assembly. The irony is that both the parties are claiming that they do not have any understanding with the BJP.

The possibility of a hung house and the unstable nature of any post-election alliances all point to a period of uncertainty in the state. There is every possibility that the state could go to the polls again even if the math adds up and the government falls midway.

For the Congress this might be good news despite the fact that they are expected to fare poorly this time round. Rahul Gandhi, who campaigned vigorously in this election, and is slowly gaining popularity, could prove crucial for Congress in its fight for the control of politically most important state in the coming years.