LUXEMBOURG, 25 May 2007 — Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in three to eight years, the head of the UN atomic watchdog said yesterday, while warning the West against military action to stop countries becoming nuclear powers.

Meanwhile, Iran’s hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad again dismissed threats of new UN sanctions after the nuclear watchdog reported Iran was expanding its atomic program.

France and the United States said the UN Security Council would have to discuss a third package of sanctions against Iran unless it freezes sensitive uranium enrichment work.

El-Baradei said it was difficult to say exactly how far Iran was from developing a nuclear weapon, if it wanted to, but added that he agreed with US assessments that it could happen in the next decade.

“In other words three to eight years from now,” he said.

El-Baradei told reporters: “We are moving toward Iran building capacity and knowledge without the agency in a position to be able to verify the nature or the scope of that program. If we continue in that direction, we will end up with a major confrontation.”

He urged the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — Britain, China, France and the United States — to refrain from using the threat of force to dissuade countries from developing atomic weapons. “We cannot bomb our way to security,” he said.

“Rather we should focus on addressing the underlying causes,” he added, listing growing poverty as a factor that leads to human rights abuses, humiliation and ultimately violence.

Iran’s president indicated the Islamic republic was in no mood to cave into UN demands.

“The enemies aim to prevent us from using peaceful nuclear technology, not for scientific reasons but because they want to eradicate the roots of the principles of the Islamic republic,” Ahmadinejad said.

“Therefore if we stop, even for a moment, they will achieve their aims,” he told elite Revolutionary Guards commanders, news agencies said.

His comments came one day after the IAEA said in a new report that Iran was defying UN Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium.

The IAEA board will review the report in June, paving the way for a Security Council meeting that could agree new sanctions against Iran.

The United States said that unless Iran agreed to a longstanding offer to suspend sensitive nuclear work as a prelude to negotiations, there was no other option than a drive for further sanctions.

“Iran is once again thumbing its nose at the international community,” US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns said. “Should it turn down the offer again, I would think what you’d see is a strong drive” by the UN Security Council for a third sanctions resolution.

New French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said Paris backed the rapid adoption of “new sanctions” against Iran if it maintains its refusal. China, which along with Russia has economic interests in Iran and has tempered previous UN resolutions along with Russia, emphasized that it wanted to see a diplomatic end to the standoff.

Iran refuses to suspend uranium enrichment, a process that can be used to make nuclear fuel and highly enriched uranium for the explosive core of an atomic bomb. The United States accuses Iran of seeking nuclear weapons but the Islamic republic insists it just wants to generate energy for a growing population.

Washington has always said it wants to resolve the crisis through diplomacy but has never ruled out military action to bring Tehran to heel. On Wednesday it appeared to send a clear warning to Iran through its navy.

The nuclear-powered aircraft carriers USS John Stennis and USS Nimitz sailed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf. “With the backing of the Iranian nation, we are not afraid of the enemies’ psychological wars,” retorted Ahmadinejad.

European countries insist that diplomatic efforts are not exhausted, and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana is due to meet Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani for key talks on May 31.