RAMALLAH, 2 June 2007 — The main reason the Israeli Army is not currently recommending to the political echelon to start a ground operation in response to the Qassam rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip is the fear that war might break out with Syria this summer, Israeli Army sources said yesterday.
According to a report by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, this argument is rarely mentioned publicly in the Jewish state, in part because intelligence analysts are still uncertain about whether Syrian President Bashar Assad intends to start a war or is merely trying to pressure Israel to resume peace talks. But Syria has clearly been preparing for the possibility of war, both through troop training and major arms deals, the paper estimates.
As a result, the Israeli Army believes Israel must also be ready for this possibility, and excessive activity on the southern front with the Palestinians would undermine its capabilities in the north. From the army’s perspective, Syria is the bigger threat; the Palestinian front is secondary.
The army is also concerned that miscalculations of the “enemy’s intentions”, on either side of the border, could lead to war between Syria and Israel even if neither side wants it. Precisely this scenario was the subject of a major military exercise last month.
In separate issue, Israeli security sources said yesterday that Israel is waiting for the Hamas movement to give it another list of Palestinian prisoners whom it would be willing to release in exchange for the abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. The Israeli government ruled out releasing most of the 350 prisoners on the list Hamas gave it two months ago.
Israel gave the names of those whom it was prepared to free — apparently only a few dozen of the 350 — to an Egyptian mediator, but he has apparently not yet transferred it to Hamas.
According to Haaretz, a senior Israeli source involved in the mediation efforts said that Israel did agree to release some Palestinians sentenced to life in prison, but only very few. The sources added that the negotiations were currently on hold due to the escalation in fighting between Israel and Hamas.
Abu Mujhad, a spokesman for the Popular Resistance Committees, said that the negotiations over Shalit were halted about six weeks ago over Israel’s refusal to accept the list of candidates for release prepared by the three Palestinian organizations holding the soldier.
He denied that the freeze had anything to do with the internal Palestinian infighting. “If Israel agrees to the list we presented, the negotiations will conclude quickly,” he said.
