Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak authorized Thursday a plan for disrupting electricity supply to the Gaza Strip as well as significantly shrinking fuel shipments. This is supposed to reduce the number of Qassam rockets fired from the Strip by Palestinian armed groups against Israeli targets. The Israeli security Cabinet declared Gaza Strip, the homeland for around 1.4 million Palestinians, a “hostile entity” last September following a barrage of Qassam rockets that knocked the Israeli military base of Zikim leaving over 60 Israeli soldiers wounded in the attack.
But there is a wide gap between the reasons Israel is giving for its decision to impose sanctions, and the real intentions behind them. In fact, Israeli defense officials believe that the Palestinian armed groups will only intensify their attacks in response to the sanctions.
As such, the real aim is something else: To attempt a new form of “escalation” as a response to attacks from Gaza, before Israel embarks on a major military operation there; and to prepare the ground for a more clear-cut isolation of the Gaza Strip — limiting to an absolute minimum Israel’s obligations toward the Palestinians living under the Hamas rule there.
Several weeks ago, Barak said Israel “is getting closer” to a major operation in the Strip. Like Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the Israeli Army’s Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, Barak is not excited about this possibility. He knows that it will not be easy, and there are no guarantees it will produce positive results. Many Israeli soldiers will be killed and so will many innocent Palestinians, because the Israeli forces will employ massive artillery bombardments before it sends infantry into the most crowded area in the world. This will be a “dirty war,” very aggressive, that will leave scenes of destruction similar to those in southern Lebanon in 2006. The only difference is that unlike in Lebanon, the Palestinians living in the coastal area has nowhere to run.
Moreover, Ashkenazi has told the Israeli Cabinet that he will only support an offensive operation if it is long lasting. The chief of staff sees merit in the operation only if after several weeks of fighting, the Israeli forces are allowed time to carry out arrests against Palestinian fighters and gather intelligence on the activities of the armed groups.
Israeli defense sources say the sanctions will lead the Palestinian armed groups to intensify their attacks to show that they do not succumb to Israeli pressure. And because the sanctions will not be severe — so as not to create a humanitarian crisis — they will not be biting either. It is actually expected that the gasoline shortage will have a greater effect than the disruptions in the electricity supply — which normally happens because of equipment breakdowns.
The decision on sanctions is also an attempt to give expression to the inclination to completely disengage from Gaza. In this way Israel is sending a message to the Palestinian leadership in the Gaza Strip that it must seek alternatives, however minor, to goods and services coming from Israel. “This disengagement bears a price for the Palestinians, an economic and social price. They will eventually have to self-examine themselves,” an Israeli defense official said. This touches on the day after the Annapolis summit. Failure at the summit may drive Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas into the arms of the Hamas. In such a case, Israel is raising a big stop sign at the exit from Ramallah: Passage to Gaza is closed.
