The official visit of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to Germany and other European countries comes at a time when the security environment in the critical and strategic Middle East continues to crumble. From the abysmal economic and social situation in the Palestinian territories, the stagnant Arab-Israeli peace process, and the domestic instability in Lebanon in the east to the dangers of a failed Iraqi state and the nuclear ambitions of Iran in the west, the entire region is engulfed in conflict situations. Only the countries of the Arab Gulf reflect some form of stability buoyed by record oil prices that underpin their development.
King Abdullah will undoubtedly discuss many of these issues and provide his perspective on what needs to be done to stop the downward spiral into further instability and violence. He should be taken seriously. Not only is Saudi Arabia the only major country in the region that is currently pursuing any sort of diplomatic initiatives — initiatives that by the way clearly coincide with European interests — but the Kingdom is also the only Arab country that currently possesses the political and economic leverage to give these proposals the necessary clout in the region. Saudi Arabia is thus a legitimate partner and the failure to recognize that amounts to a serious lost opportunity.
Saudi Arabia’s current activism stands in contrast to its traditional complacency. Aware that the regional security environment around it has started to cave in, the Kingdom under the leadership of King Abdullah has taken a more determined role to counter negative developments taking place. This includes efforts to promote dialogue on some of the most pressing issues facing the Gulf and the wider Middle East. In March 2007, Saudi Arabia hosted the Arab League summit in Riyadh for the first time during which King Abdullah received unanimous support from all Arab leaders to revive his five-year old plan for peace with Israel. The plan calls for Arab recognition of Israel in return for a comprehensive peace deal and thus represents clear support for the two-state solution and for a normalization process with Israel. Receiving the clear backing of all Arab leaders present at the summit meant that Saudi Arabia was successful in transforming its original proposal into an Arab initiative that all Arab states have now supported and agreed to.
A host of other smaller developments also bore the Saudi signature. This included the Makkah agreement which quelled the violence between rival Palestinian factions, the continued support for the Lebanese government in both political and, more importantly, economic terms, as well as the increasing pressure on Syria and the Saudi commitment for the UN Security Council resolutions to uncover the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Saudi Arabia was even involved in brokering a deal between the governments of Sudan and Chad to contain the spillover fighting from the Darfur crisis.
The Kingdom has also not shied away from publicly criticizing the United States for what it considers are mistaken policies. On Iraq, the Saudi leader has described the presence of the US forces there as “illegitimate foreign occupation” reflecting the view that the US is unable to provide stability or, at a minimum, a sense of a strategy that would slowly improve the situation inside the country. All of this has added to the image of Saudi Arabia as the new actor on the Middle East stage, as a country that would no longer remain passive but is determined to exert its influence over crucial regional issues.
Given that the US under the Bush administration lacks the policy tools to guarantee regional stability, Saudi Arabia needs additional external partners to further pursue its goals. The challenges of the Middle East are simply too great for Saudi Arabia to bear the burden alone. The Kingdom’s sticks are limited while the carrots will also only go so far. With Middle East security also on the top of the European agenda, a partnership with a country like Germany would go a long way. The growing awareness in German diplomatic circles about the central importance of the Middle East is in that context a proper point of departure.
Germany has an important role to play in the Middle East and has a level of influence that is far greater than often perceived back in Berlin. Given the fact that the country was never a colonial power in the Middle East and thus carries no historical baggage, it is easier for Germany to play the role of an honest broker and promote itself as a mediator between conflicting parties. Already on numerous occasions, Germany has helped resolve delicate hostage situations on the Arab-Israeli front. During its recent presidency of the European Union, Germany was able to revive the Quartet talks on the Middle East peace process. Overall, Germany maintains substantive, close and trustworthy ties to all the parties in the region.
Thus, Germany is today in a position as a leading European state able to negotiate common European positions on critical issues for the region and use its offices for crisis prevention and confidence-building among regional actors. Its economic presence is well established and given that current projections indicate a $5 trillion budget surplus by the Gulf states by 2010 and a corresponding rise in per capita income up to $78,000, Germany will undoubtedly further benefit from such a prolonged boom period. A stronger link to Saudi Arabia would also strengthen the needed political efforts especially because both sides share common interests.
The issue of Iran represents one example where closer coordination can bear fruits. The key strategic objective is the same for both countries: To prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear military capability. To prevent a possible war, Saudi Arabia as the main Arab Gulf state and Germany as a key European country should coordinate their approach to make sure Tehran understands the seriousness of the situation. Already, the Kingdom has used its lines of communication with Tehran to warn Iranian officials about the limits of their unacceptable behavior. When President Ahmadinejad visited Riyadh in early March 2007, King Abdullah bluntly told his visitor that Iran should stop interfering in Arab affairs and not underestimate the US military threat in light of the continued Iranian defiance of UN Security Council resolutions. The message is that Iranian action must consider the stability of the entire Gulf neighborhood instead of just focusing on the hostile relationship between Tehran and Washington. Saudi-German cooperation, also when it comes to business dealings with Iran, would reinforce this message.
The fact that Saudi Arabia is the world’s leading oil producer, the heartland of Islam, and a leading Arab state interested in promoting and securing regional security and stability also means that Germany has direct interests in developing its relations with the Kingdom.
— Dr. Christian Koch is director of international studies, Gulf Research Center.
