The irony will not be lost on many Lebanese that 24 hours after their country celebrated its 64th anniversary of independence, their political representatives became deadlocked precisely because outside powers continue to violate that independence. The fifth postponement of a parliamentary session to elect a replacement for President Emile Lahoud means that, as of midnight last night when Lahoud’s term of office came to an end, Lebanon ceased to have a president. There was little optimism among legislators any party that the election session would get under way today either.
This is a very dangerous moment. Until now the bickering between Hezbollah and other pro-Syrian and Iranian parties on one side and nationalist, pro-Lebanon parties on the other, has been wearying enough, but at least the talking has persisted. Now that the Lebanon has no president, everyone is staring into an abyss, because it is constitutionally unclear to whom the not inconsiderable presidential powers pass. The coalition government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora maintains that it should take them over. Others have suggested the speaker of the Parliament hold these powers in the interim. Lahoud had been hinting in his final days that he might favor the army.
The problem with every solution being advanced is that they are even less likely to gain general agreement than the seemingly more straightforward business of choosing, as constitutionally required, a Christian president. Bitterly contested rival solutions will only add to the rising political temperature and could trigger a return to the violence that everyone so fears — how much better to make the normal political process work.
So what is pushing Lebanese politicians into this communal insanity? In terms of outside interference, the United States is probably not the major culprit. That’s not to say that the Lebanese have either forgotten or forgiven the Americans for standing aside while the Israelis smashed Lebanese infrastructure. Washington’s former allies now rue the stupidity of the Israeli invasion, which, far from defeating Hezbollah, actually saw Israel humiliated and Hezbollah empowered through its populist postwar rebuilding efforts.
Furthermore, it was Hezbollah’s belief that, as the victor, it should have a bigger role in the coalition government that led to its rebuff and walkout. In this way, Israel’s bombing emboldened Hezbollah and its supporters to trigger the current risky instability. There is no doubt that Syria and Iran are also proud of Israel’s failure. Can these two governments really want to see, as a way of blunting US influence, a return of the bloody civil conflict in which last time 100,000 people perished? If so, it is a shameful policy. And all Lebanese legislators who still refuse to find a compromise presidential candidate not only put their own communities in harm’s way but also jeopardize their country’s independent future. Why don’t they all wake up?
