The GCC leaders will meet in the first week of December in Doha, Qatar for their regular annual summit meeting to discuss the current issues and future challenges facing the GCC nations and the region in general. Most likely the final communiqué of the summit will refer to the usual Gulf concerns and other regional issues of interest. However, the Iranian nuclear crisis will definitely be at the forefront of these issues.

Relations between Iran and the GCC states cannot be limited to the nuclear issue. This is not to underestimate the importance of this issue to the GCC countries. The concern felt by the GCC states can be partly attributed to some extreme statements and actions by the Iranian government over other issues of interest. Thus, it is important to view the Iranian nuclear crisis within the wider context of the policies and attitudes of the Iranian regime toward the Gulf region in particular and the Arab world in general.

Since Iran is an Islamic state, and a neighbor of the Arab world, it is imperative for Gulf-Iranian relationships to be based on the firm foundation of mutual interests, friendly neighborliness, respect of sovereignty and noninterference in internal affairs. However, the problem is with the confrontational nature of the policies of the Iranian regime which creates a state of instability in the region. Much of this emanates from internal conflicts and imbalances within the Iranian political system.

Of course we cannot ignore the other sources of instability in the region, chief among which is the failure of US policies in Iraq, which ultimately works to the interest of Iran. In this context, it could be said that the interventionist nature of Iranian policy vis-a-vis Arab affairs has the same dangerous impact as the Iranian nuclear policy. This aggressive policy has damaging effects on the security of the Arab world in the near and long term. Iran is controlling the main centers of power within the Iraqi state. It has virtual domination over the political process and decision-making mechanism in Iraq. It plays a major role in the political and security scene in Lebanon, and has a clear presence in Palestinian politics. This is in addition to its total rejection of any possible peaceful solution to the issue of its occupation of the three UAE islands. Some recent statements from within Iran repeated the old false claims that the sovereign Kingdom of Bahrain is just another Iranian province.

Also, Iran has failed until now to build confidence among its neighbors in the Gulf region and reassure them about its nuclear program.

The GCC summit will be held at a time when the option of a military confrontation over the Iranian nuclear crisis is gaining considerable momentum. Iran under Ahmadinajad is more or less taking the same position as Iraq under Saddam Hussein, which led to catastrophic results. The two UN Security Council resolutions 1737 and 1747 called upon Iran to suspend, with immediate effect, all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities on its territory. Since March 2006, the UN Security Council has repeated its calls, but Iran continued with its enrichment process, while the political and military leadership of the country raised the level of political rhetoric.

It is worth mentioning here that the call for the suspension of uranium enrichment activities is no longer an American or European demand; rather, it has become an urgent requirement by the international community. It is a demand that has the credence of international legality conferred upon it by the UN Security Council resolutions.

The Security Council will meet soon to consider yet another resolution against Iran. The new resolution may impose more severe economic and diplomatic sanctions against Iran. It is quite certain that the GCC states will abide by the decision and observe the economic, financial or diplomatic sanctions imposed on Iran, irrespective of the political or material costs of this stance.

Notwithstanding the usual Arab attitude toward UNSC resolutions which is characterized by a lack of confidence, the Security Council’s demands in relation to Tehran are seen as quite logical and acceptable. The council did not ask Iran to abandon its nuclear program for peaceful purposes altogether, nor did it call for the closure of the nuclear reactor in Bushehr; rather, all that the UNSC resolutions called for was an immediate and sustained suspension of all uranium enrichment-related activities on Iranian territory.

In conclusion, it is my personal wish as the citizen of a GCC country that the upcoming GCC summit succeeds in tackling these serious challenges facing the Gulf region and the Middle East region as a whole. The dangerous and costly blunders of the US, the hegemonic ambitions of Iran, the heightening tensions resulting from the dangerous sectarian disputes, are only a few examples from the list of threats facing us.

The GCC states will be able to deal with these challenges in an effective manner only if they can agree on a unified strategy which takes into consideration their vital common interests.

If a war breaks out because of the Iranian nuclear crisis, GCC states will have to formulate a contingency plan outlining the most rational ways of dealing with the possible fallout. The GCC states should take all precautionary measures and expect the unexpected in this unfolding volatile situation. They should take the initiative and formulate appropriate plans for the future. They should not leave that vital task to other parties, who may only seek to serve their own interests and pursue their private agendas.

—Abdulaziz O.Sager is chairman, Gulf Research Center. E-mail at: [email protected]