On Nov. 15 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) produced a report that claimed Iran had been cooperating to a limited extent with its inspectors, but might be able to produce an atom bomb within a year. This has raised fears in both London and Washington of an attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The IAEA report stated: “Iran has provided sufficient access to individuals and has responded in a timely manner to questions and provided clarifications and amplifications on issues raised.”

It went on to say that the IAEA: “was not in a position to provide credible assurances about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.”

It concluded that Iran has expanded uranium enrichment to about 3,000 centrifuge machines, and that is enough to start industrial production of nuclear fuel and could provide the material for an atom bomb within a year.

That Iran has cooperated to some extent will be used as an argument by both Russia and China that such progress should continue, and no strengthening of sanctions is called for at this stage. Experts had appeared to agree that if Iran were working flat out to make a nuclear weapon it would need some five years to succeed. That now seems rather too optimistic. Clearly Iran would need several nuclear weapons for military purposes. Iran handed over a blueprint which explained how to shape uranium metal into hemispheres for a nuclear warhead, which had been given to them by the Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.

As always Washington speaks with many different voices on Iran, as on other topics of the day. However, the impression is being given that the Pentagon is not at present enthusiastic over air strikes on Iran even if Vice President Dick Cheney is. He said on Oct. 21 that there would be serious consequences if Iran did not halt its enrichment program, and he hates the idea of passing on the problem of Iran to the next administration.

The military establishment has doubts over how effective air strikes could be. Likely military targets would be deep underground — perhaps under mountains — and protected against attacks from above. No doubt the State Department talks privately of the need to support the moderate factions in that vast country rather than unite them with the hard-liners.

Without doubt Iran has the potential to make life almost impossible for America’s overstretched troops in Iraq. It has been arming and training militant groups, and has been accused of being behind the assassinations of some of Iraq’s provincial governors. Iran could also bring great influence to bear on Afghanistan through extensive support for the Taleban. Iran could encourage international terrorism elsewhere in the world, perhaps using the Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Israel is in a different mood to America by all accounts. It is not prepared to consider a nuclear Iran. Ehud Barak, the present defense minister and former prime minister, said a few weeks ago: “Talks never did, and never will, stop rockets.” There is the mystery of what did, or did not, happen to Syria in October. It is a fact that Israel carried out a totally illegal air strike. President Bashar Assad has told the BBC:

“They bombed buildings and constructions related to the military...”

Israel followed with a statement confirming they had attacked a military target in Syria. The site hit was near the town of Deir ez-Zor in the Northeast and close to the Euphrates. We can then throw in suggestions as to what the real target might have been. A nuclear reactor in its very early stages perhaps? Rockets of a long range in transit or in store for Hezbollah? A conference involving Hezbollah’s top people? Was the idea to discourage Syria from going to the conference in Annapolis, Maryland; if so, it failed.

On Oct. 26, 2005 President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad unexpectedly shocked the world — and many fellow-Iranians — when he described Israel as a “disgraceful blot” that should be “wiped off the map”. Israel can hardly be blamed for taking it literally; most countries would in similar circumstances. Israel has claimed Iran’s nuclear program “can be destroyed”. Israelis are proud of the bombing of the Osirah facility in Iraq in 1981, which they regard as an obvious and important success.

In September 2004 it was reported that America was about to sell Israel some new “bunker buster” bombs. These are precision-guided and designed to penetrate and destroy underground targets. Israel has a fighter-bomber squadron trained for such a role.

The region faces an extremely dangerous period.