Turkey seems to be increasing its attacks in Iraq against what it believes are PKK bases there. The latest incursion in the early hours of yesterday morning was allegedly to break up a PKK force concentrating for an assault. It came after Sunday’s Turkish airstrikes involving 50 jets on targets in the Kurdish-run north of Iraq.
The Turks say they have had enough of PKK attacks which, because the rebel movement’s grip in Turkey itself has been loosened, are now predominantly coming from Iraq. To Ankara’s way of thinking, this is a legitimate counterstroke against terrorists who have not been brought to heel by the autonomous Iraqi Kurdish government. But the Erdogan government appears to be giving no thought to the dangerous destabilizing effect of its attacks on a part of the world where stability is already fragile enough. Indeed, maybe the calculation is that this cross-border campaign and the fresh chaos it threatens will so alarm the regional and central Iraqi governments, to say nothing of the Americans, that action will finally be taken to curb the PKK.
It is not, however, that simple. Washington, which sponsored and supported the Iraqi Kurds in the hope of having one area of Iraq that was not a shooting gallery, has failed to persuade the regional government of Massoud Barzani to rein in the PKK. The Kurdish chief is reluctant to turn his Pershmerga militia against fellow Kurds and may even doubt that they would obey such orders. Therefore unable to work the diplomatic lever, Washington has quietly countenanced the illegal Turkish incursions into Iraq and, if reports from the Turkish military are to be believed, has actually provided intelligence to Ankara for the raids.
It may be that the Americans have persuaded Barzani to stand by while the Turks assault the PKK. This would explain the unusually mild manner in which a Iraqi Kurdish government spokesman, after condemning the violation of Iraqi sovereignty, seemed to wash his hands of the matter, warning only that the Turks should take care to avoid injuring and killing civilians. If this is correct, it is a grave miscalculation.
In their military, intelligence and diplomatic support for the Israelis, the Americans have demonstrated the degree to which they will countenance illegal armed assaults by an ally, often into areas where civilian lives will be lost. If Washington is now playing the same game with Ankara, America’s stock will be lowered yet further in the region and Turkey’s reputation dragged down with it. Worse, these cross-border violations inflame ordinary Kurds on both sides of the border, and probably act as a recruiting sergeant for the PKK. By doing nothing, Barzani risks his own political position, especially since his rival clan leader Jalal Talabani is Iraq’s president and must defend his country’s territorial integrity. At the moment, militarily, the Turks look to have a clean run, but it may not be long before the political cost has to be paid, not just by Ankara but by the Barzani government also.
