Explaining Lebanon is almost always a matter of perspective. Views and opinions are as diverse and abundant as the parties, sects, militias and religious chiefs that together make up the unique political mosaic that is Lebanon. So when the latest crisis turned into a bloody confrontation last week in Beirut, Tripoli and the Chouf mountains, the world looked on in awe as pundits and other talking heads attempted to explain and apportion blame.
In fact, few know for sure what the core issues are. Most Lebanese will offer simplistic and biased views on the causes of the current standoff, and fewer still will attempt to explain the two-year political stalemate between the so-called loyalists and opposition. Understanding what is going on is never easy, but it is safe to say that Lebanon has been an open arena for local, regional and international power struggle since its independence. It is certain that foreign hands are involved. Syria, which had pulled its troops from Lebanon three years ago, still maintains influence especially among the opposition groups. The United States, Iran, France, Israel and some Gulf countries too have favored one side over the other.
Even at the sectarian level, loyalties have been divided. The Druze find themselves on both sides of the conflict and so do the Christians. Last week’s escalation, which had sent Hezbollah and its allies into the streets of Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, had stunned the loyalists whose militias quickly retreated. The army has managed to stay united and is now slowly restoring law and order.
But the face-off is far from over. The opposition claims it has aborted a US-Israeli plot to strike Hezbollah and the Lebanese resistance forces. The loyalists accuse the Shiite party of using its military arsenal to topple the legitimate government and impose a political settlement on its pro-West foes. On the outside there is Washington, which wants Hezbollah disarmed and dismantled as a way to undermine Iranian and Syrian presence in Lebanon. And it is no secret that Hezbollah’s main allies reside in Tehran and Damascus. And of course there is always Israel, which also wants to remove Hezbollah’s threat and check the Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon.
In the heart of the crisis there is the sectarian power sharing deal which has become out of date. Dialogue, which now looks like the only viable alternative to armed confrontation and chaos, will have to center on amending the historic Taif national reconciliation accords agreed to by Lebanese factions in 1989.
Lebanon’s ill-fate has been in its diversity and proximity to the epicenters of clashes, including the Arab-Israeli conflict. The root causes of recent crisis can be traced to as far back as one cares to remember. At one point, Lebanon became a battlefield between “progressive” Arab governments and “reactionary” regimes. At another, it was the hot arena where Palestinian groups fought and lost a war against Israel and its Lebanese Christian allies. The Israeli invasion gave birth to Shiite resistance movements, which in turn galvanized the sect’s political and military efforts under the umbrella of Hezbollah.
The ideological struggles that were ripping through the Arab world in the 1950s and 1960s quickly spilled over and Lebanon, with its openness and Westernized mentality, became a stage for regional saber rattling.
It is difficult to see the Lebanese reaching accord so long as foreign interference in the country’s internal affairs continues. The current showdown between Washington on the one side and Iran and Syria, on the other will not help ease the pressure on Lebanon. And Hezbollah’s military capabilities will continue to worry the Israelis who were humiliated in the July 2006 aggression on Lebanon.
The Arabs have been unable to play a positive role as well. What the Arab League wants to do is often derailed by the involvement of some of its members. And within Lebanon, traditional leaderships have concentrated more on solidifying their own power rather than seeking a compromise with their bitter enemies., Still, Lebanon has been able to survive previous crises in a remarkable way. If a political formula is reached then that country can make a quick come back. The challenges are enormous and the problems are complicated.
To endure, the Lebanese will have to change the sectarian power-sharing arrangement that has reached its limits. Such a new deal could probably be reached if the Lebanese parties were left to themselves. Such a pre-condition is far from likely now and Lebanon’s struggle to move beyond its perennial ailment is far from over.
