The nail-biting contest between Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama to clinch the Democratic Party nomination for the November presidential elections is finally over. Obama declared himself winner, having secured the necessary number of delegates, both super and common, while the former first lady gave up her challenge and backed the young black senator in his bid to claim the White House.
So now, after months of uncertainty, the two contenders for the presidency are known to all. The 71-year-old Republican candidate, John McCain is running almost neck to neck with Obama, 25 years his junior, in the most recent polls. But now that Obama has secured his party’s nomination, he is free to focus his efforts on his remaining rival. The coming weeks and months will see many twists and turns as both men hit the campaign trail.
While McCain’s run has been smoother so far, the heated and controversial competition between the first woman candidate and the first black contender for the Democratic Party nomination has sent shock waves across the demographic layers of American politics. Both were able to enliven the political culture through their debates and the issues they raised, attracting voters who traditionally were not part of the mainstream.
Women, African-American and young voters have been inspired by the often sensational confrontations between the two candidates and the issues they raised. More importantly perhaps, they were motivated by the call for change, breaking off with the Bush legacy that has crippled America for almost eight years.
And the call for change will be the hallmark of this presidential campaign. McCain’s candidacy is seen by many as an extension of the Bush presidency that has been marked by war, economic stagnation, corruption and public distrust. Obama with his colorful background, integrity and passion represents change as many in America want to see it; as many Americans believe they deserve.
But the world knows little of the intricacies and nuances that characterize American politics. The country is in transition and the undercurrents of its political, economic, demographic and social forces are shifting. Obama — and Clinton to give her credit — may have sensed this early on and as a result is attempting to seize the historic opportunity.
Will America make history and elect its first African-American president? Pundits believe it is possible for a number of reasons. One is the fact that he is running against McCain, who is perceived as old, dull and firmly rooted in the old politics that has governed America for years. Another is the role of the young and excited voters who have been motivated by the charisma and eloquence of the youthful Obama. A third is the declining state of the economy and the unchecked rise in the price of oil that is destroying jobs and affecting consumers across America. A fourth reason is the war in Iraq that has frustrated millions of Americans and squandered billions of dollars.
McCain and his strategists know that he cannot afford to defend the status quo and that, in order to drive voters away from Obama, he must play the fear card. He must distance himself from President Bush and his policies, but not in a way so as to give his rival’s call for change any credit. He must walk a tight-rope brandishing the same slogans that the Republicans have backed for so long, but offering a different approach to implementing them. The war in Iraq, Islamic terrorism, the economy, education, health, abortion, big business and others will have to make up the firm ground of his campaign since these are the issues that worry the conservative flank of American society which he now represents.
It is these issues that Obama and his people will have to address as well. The traditional confrontation between conservatives and liberals will become the semblance of the campaign in the coming few weeks and at times foreign observers will be lost as each candidate attempts to explain his position on taxes, federal and state relations, health insurance, education, veterans, political reforms and others. This is when the campaign goes deep into the American hinterland and when the outcome of presidential debates, when both candidates face each other and explain their policies, will be determined more by micro politics rather than grandstanding.
Ultimately, to capture undecided and independent voters, Americans will have to negotiate the race issue, in the case of Obama, and the more-of-the-Bush-years or McBush, in McCain’s state. If the economy falters further or the United States launches a punitive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, the presidential campaign, as well as the voters, may swing into unpredictable directions.
For the Arabs, it is the candidates’ foreign policy, especially on the peace process and Iraq, which is of interest — and concern. Unfortunately, neither man represents real hope for a better future for the region. As always, the Arabs will be hoping for the lesser of the two evils and even then nothing can be taken for granted.
— Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist based in Jordan.
