Ironically, as the electoral fervor was at its peak in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), so was tension between India and Pakistan - as has been routine practice- over terrorism, but with a difference. Verbal missiles fired from both sides had little to do with terrorism in J&K. The focus was on Mumbai terror strikes for which Indian authorities hold Pakistan-based groups as responsible. Though terrorism dominated the headlines as it always has, particularly when J&K polls are being held, this time the long-standing Indo-Pak dispute over the Kashmir issue was pushed to the background, with Mumbai-case taking the center stage.
Equally significant is the election period being witness to a major development, with the opening of trade across the much disputed, controversial Line-of-Control (LoC) between two sides, from Oct. 21. Undeniably, this trade is as yet nowhere near the mark of reaching its full potential. But had the LoC not been opened for trade, during these elections too, Kashmiris may have viewed their votes as meaningless where their own demands as well interests are concerned. The resumption of trade across LoC after the long gap of six decades carries greater importance for Kashmiris on both sides than is apparent. From the Indian side, traders include Hindu as well as Muslim Kashmiris who want this trade to pick up and not be adversely affected by any hostility in Indo-Pak ties. Despite their being some tension over Mumbai terror attacks, so far the trade across LoC has remained unaffected.
The LoC trade also carries the message that two countries have tacitly decided to deliberate on Kashmir dispute through dialogues and not fiery exchanges, with Kashmiris being the main sufferers. For Kashmiris, this signals that rather than totally ignore their interests, the two sides have at least begun giving them greater importance than before. From this angle, the opening of LoC for trade marks the beginning of a new and positive phase for Kashmiris.
So it is not without reason that defying separatists' call for boycott of polls, the Kashmiris turned out in large numbers to exercise their franchise. The same may be said about the notable fall of 86 percent in militancy-related incidents in these polls compared to 2002. The reported casualty in these elections was 12 civilians and five security personnel, while in 2002, those killed included 220 civilians and 148 security personnel. The turnout of voters was 63.21 percent, against 44 percent in 2002.
What is amazing is that Indo-Pak war hysteria (over Mumbai), internal tension on Amarnath land row and even separatists' call for boycott of polls had little influence in keeping voters away from the ballot box. Each of these issues could have had a negative impact - by fuelling separatists' call for "azadi" (independence), creating communal schism, provoking militancy. Neither happened.
True, some importance needs to be given to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having won 11 seats in comparison to it bagging only one in 2002. It would, however, be erroneous to view it as reflective of a disturbing trend, bordering on fueling communal tension in the state. With 11 seats, BJP constitutes less than 13 percent of the 87-member assembly. There is nothing surprising about it with Hindus forming around 30 percent of the state's population. Equally significant is the fact that a third of the 64 candidates fielded by BJP were Muslims. The situation would have been different if any of the leading parties, particularly the BJP, had fielded candidates belonging to only one religious group. In this context, rather than hold BJP's gain as reflective of any communal schism in the state, it would be more relevant to view it as the party having secured the chance to at least voice its stand in the assembly.
Notwithstanding the fact that a hung assembly carries apprehension of political instability in the state, by turning out in large numbers the voters have sent a strong message. The hung assembly also suggests that now, neither the average Kashmiri nor the state's polity can be viewed as an adherent to any singular political party and/or ideology. It is too early to hold Omar Abdullah taking over charge as the youngest chief minister the state has had so far, as a major development. Greater credit may have been given to Omar, if his campaign had led his party to form a single party-government. The Kashmiri voters have given him and the center a major chance. It is now to be watched whether Omar succeeds in staying as chief minister long enough to ensure a stable government, without pushing the state and its citizens to the mercy of bullets.
