The Israeli election result is the worst possible outcome imaginable. Whoever emerges as prime minister, whether Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud or Tzipi Livni, the Kadima leader, peace is in peril.
If it is Netanyahu with a Likud-led coalition, a settlement will be off the agenda altogether. He is adamantly opposed to peace with the Palestinians except on his own unacceptable terms. He cannot countenance closing Jewish settlements on occupied Palestinian land; on the contrary he wants more and is fanatically opposed to East Jerusalem ever becoming the capital of a Palestinian state. As for Livni, even if she manages to cobble together a coalition, even a grand coalition, she cannot deliver. One led by her would fall apart as soon as she started talking about settlements and Jerusalem. In any event, no one should be under any delusion that she is some sort of a liberal. Her hands are drenched in Palestinian blood. The carnage in Gaza was for her benefit. Over thirteen hundred people in Gaza died to get her elected. That was the plan. What makes the results so shocking and depressing is that Israel’s murderous campaign in Gaza had paradoxically opened a unique window of opportunity for peace. International outrage at the carnage in Gaza was such that it created a determination that never again should Palestinians suffer such brutality and that, once and for all, a settlement be agreed. The arrival of President Barack Obama in the White House with his message that US international policy will change further fanned those flames of hope.
Yet it would be wrong to believe, because the Israeli electorate has moved so sharply to the right, that all hope is dashed. This undoubted blow to chances of a settlement in the Middle East need not result in an increase in frustration and anger among Palestinians and Arabs. It need not lead inevitably to greater radicalization and greater militancy. Everything now depends on President Obama. The results put even greater responsibility on him and the new administration to work on the Israelis to deliver. Indeed, it does not really matter who the next Israeli prime minister is. No Israeli leader is going to embrace a peace deal voluntarily. For 60 years, all of them have done everything to avoid a settlement with the Palestinians. Left to its own devices, the next government will pretend to pursue peace while doing everything to sabotage it. The Israelis will never willingly agree to a settlement. Peace frightens them. Which is why, when asked whether they want to live in peace with their neighbors or in an armed ghetto, the Israelis opted firmly for the ghetto and the insane comfort of racism and bigotry — as if it could ever ensure their security. This election outcome could see the region descend into the abyss as Palestinian resentment at further inaction boils over into violence.
It is all the more reason why the US has to work on the Israelis, just as the Saudis and others will have to work on the Palestinians. It is the only hope for sanity and safety in the region.
