The Guardian yesterday commented on US-Syrian ties. Excerpts:
The sale of doormats featuring the Star of David, enabling Syrians to express their anger with Israel every time they enter or leave their homes, went up in Damascus during the Gaza war. But what Syria calls the “steadfast” position, combining alliance with Iran, support for Hezbollah and Hamas, hostility to Israel and opposition to the policies of the United States, has for some time been less monolithic than it once appeared.
With Turkey acting as the go-between, Syria has been tentatively exploring the possibility of peace with Israel and the return of the Golan Heights, the holy grail of Syrian politics. It has in principle decided to establish an embassy in Beirut, moving toward a recognition of the full sovereignty of the neighbor it dominated and occupied for many years. And it has been edging closer to Europe, pursuing talks on partnership status with the EU and receiving Nicolas Sarkozy earlier this year. Gaza disrupted this process, but it probably would have slowed in any case, as governments in the region awaited President Obama’s assumption of office and the outcome of the Israeli elections. President Bashar Assad’s readiness to respond to gestures from the new American administration, as expressed in the interview he gave to this paper, is to be welcomed.
Yet it would be foolish to leap to an immediately optimistic conclusion. John Kerry, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will be in Damascus in a week or so, and the US, which withdrew its ambassador in 2005, is expected to send a new envoy soon after. President Bashar indicated yesterday that he might also have discussions with Gen. David Petraeus, which would obviously concern Iraq. In theory a new Israeli government might find it easier to move on the Golan than on the West Bank and Gaza, so a scenario can be constructed in which Washington and Damascus move closer, and a Syrian-Israeli peace deal becomes a serious possibility.
But this ignores the fact that in the Middle East talking is often a substitute for action, or a means of postponing it. The price for the Golan would be a high one for Syria, involving at least a reduction in its ties with Iran, as well as hard decisions about its support for Hezbollah. In any case Damascus may well want to pause until it sees how Hezbollah does in the Lebanese elections in June. Obama has set off a long process of waiting, watching and maneuvering in the Middle East. It is good that it has begun, but far too early to speculate on how it will end.
