The decision by Israeli President Shimon Peres to ask his old political rival and nemesis Benjamin Netanyahu to form the next government is a bit like the death of a loved one in the last stages of cancer. It was foreseen but it still comes as a shock. Ever since the Israeli general election just over a week ago, it has been obvious that Netanyahu would be the next prime minister. The most Tzipi Livni and her Kadima party could hope for was a grand coalition. Israel’s new kingmaker, Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman, was broadly supportive but once it became clear that neither he nor Netanyahu would agree to her demand of a rotating premiership — two years for her and two years for Netanyahu — the die was cast. Those 10 days of political haggling lulled everyone into a period not of suspense but of suspended reaction. We knew the outcome; we are just waiting for final confirmation.
It is a disaster for the Middle East. The idea that Netanyahu in his second term will be more interested in peace, more flexible, than in his first is a complete fantasy. Those who think that he is a changed man and will now work for a settlement delude themselves. Netanyahu II will be as malevolent as Netanyahu I. He remains fully wedded to the “No”s that were his guiding principles last time round: No discussion about Jerusalem, no withdrawal from the Golan Heights, no end to settlements. As far as the latter goes, he is almost certain to add to their number. In the meantime, he will make impossible demands of President Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority about fighting “terrorism”. There is no chance of peace with him at the helm. Without Jerusalem, without an end to the settlements, the Arab “land-for-peace” plan originally devised by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah, which is now supported by virtually every government in the world, is blocked. Without movement on the Golan Heights, there is no chance of an accommodation with Syria — which means that other problems in the Middle East will continue to smolder and burn.
Unless there is a fallout with Lieberman, which is entirely possible, Netanyahu could be in power for four years. It is a frightening prospect. He is a populist and wants to be popular with Israeli public opinion — a public opinion that is now overwhelmingly right wing and fearful of any concessions to the Palestinians. He is not a man who listens to reason. Last time round his relationship with Washington was so barbed and raw that Bill Clinton openly spoke about what he thought of him. The relationship is not going to get any better with President Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, even if they try to be as constructive as possible. Netanyahu will do everything to prevent peace — while pretending otherwise. That means four years of, at best, political progress frozen; at worst, of more Israeli bombs and bullets killing hundreds if not thousands more Palestinians. The latter is much more likely. Stagnation, almost certainly guarantees that the road ahead will be bloody. Palestinian resentment at stalemate will express itself in renewed militancy and an upsurge in violence. In such a situation can Hamas stop angry young militants firing new rockets into Israel from Gaza? It is doubtful. The consequences of that are obvious. Another horrific reign of terror from the Israelis. One hope may be his handling of the Israeli economy. As finance minister between 2003 and 2005, Netanyahu proved himself incompetent. His performance did more than anything else to lose Likud the 2005 elections. In the present climate, Israelis are as much focused on their economy as a settlement with the Palestinians, if not more so. It is Netanyahu’s Achilles’ heal. Dependent as Israel is on foreign aid, his room for maneuver will be limited. President Obama has to use that if he is to make the breakthrough he says he wants.
