RUSSIA had better watch what it says, even if it is only “hypothetical”. That was the word used by the Kremlin when describing the not so hypothetical comments of a Russian Air Force chief who appeared to be eying Cuba or an island offered by Venezuela to base Russian bombers.

Giving the theoretical talk, more realism was the purported statement by Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez that he indeed had offered “a whole island with an aerodrome” which could be used as a temporary base for strategic Russian bombers.

Any mentioning of Russia and Cuba in the same breath always conjures up images of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when Soviet nuclear missiles stationed in Cuba pushed the world to the brink of a nuclear conflict.

The world will not want to go through the Cuban missile crisis all over again. It probably won’t happen again. Russia has nothing to gain strategically from basing long-range craft within relatively short range of US shores. Russian bombers are already capable of reaching attacking range of the United States without the need for stopovers. So basing Russian bombers in Venezuela or Cuba is unnecessary. Nevertheless, the sheer proximity of Russian bombers being that much closer to US shores is a menacing thought.

This is especially true given the fact that Russia has been working to reassert itself as a military force, as evidenced by its resumption of long-range bomber patrols in 2007 after a 15-year hiatus.

But Russia has welcomed Barack Obama’s apparently more conciliatory approach. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met her Russian opposite number Sergey Lavrov in Geneva earlier this month to push a symbolic “reset” button, another sign of the desire for a clean slate. So the US and Russia have been trying to reset their relationship. The new Obama administration appears to want to mend relations with Moscow.

However, US feels Russia is flexing its muscle via its two biggest Latin American allies. Two Russian bombers landed in Venezuela last year in what was the first Western Hemisphere touchdown of Russian military craft since the end of the Cold War. Venezuela also hosted two Russian Tu-160 bombers in September for training flights and later joined Russian warships for exercises in the Caribbean. And last summer a Moscow newspaper reported that Russia could send nuclear bombers to Cuba.

After being enthused by Cuban air bases which would suit Russia perfectly, the Russian Air Force commander moved from the hypothetical to real time: “If there is a corresponding political decision, then the use of the island by the Russian Air Force is possible... If the two chiefs of state display such a political will, we are ready to fly there.”

The Kremlin insists it’s all hypothetical but it would never allow such a high-ranking Russian military official to make such pronouncements unless it wanted him to say so.

The bond shared by Venezuela and Cuba should not be underestimated: They have close political and energy relations with Russia, but more significant, they are fierce US foes. This could make the recent overtures by Russia to both of these enemies of the US not mere off-the-cuff remarks.

A summit and lessons of 1930s

THERE is a better chance of reviving confidence, now in short supply, if people and businesses believe governments are pulling together and that international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund have the resources to step in and rescue economies brought down by the crisis, said The Sunday Times in its editorial yesterday. Excerpts:

The global economy is in its worst recession since 1945, with world trade and output heading for its first fall since the 1930s. The urgent task is to stem the slide that followed the near-meltdown of global banking last autumn. Despite differences of emphasis between Britain and America on one side, and Germany and France on the other, there is no conflict between that and taking steps to prevent the banks wreaking havoc again. Plenty is being done, including fiscal packages worth a combined $2 trillion, aggressive cuts in interest rates and comprehensive banking rescue packages. These moves are in the right direction and in some countries there is scope for going further.

More importantly, G-20 leaders must present their actions not purely as national responses to national crises but as a joint effort to lift the world out of the mire. Confidence is in short supply; there is a better chance of reviving it if people and businesses believe governments are pulling together and that international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund have the resources to step in and rescue economies brought down by the crisis. Confidence will also be boosted if people think bankers will not be allowed to drag us down again. At one level that means outlawing the kind of bonus culture that encouraged greed and irresponsible risk-taking.