Last Wednesday’s deadly suicide attacks in the heart of Baghdad were a chilling reminder that all is not well in Iraq, and that sinister forces continue to threaten that country’s desperate struggle to achieve a sense of security and normalcy. The blasts, the most lethal this year, have killed more than 100 and injured over 500, but it was the timing and the locations that rattled the government.

Whoever planned and carried out the bombings had managed to send a loud and clear message to the government of Nuri Al-Maliki, which had showed signs of premature confidence in its own security forces in the wake of US military pull-out of urban areas last June.

Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari, whose ministry was one of the primary targets of Wednesday’s bombings, accused security officials of collaborating with the terrorists. He was also critical of Al-Maliki’s decision two weeks ago to remove blast walls from Baghdad’s streets.

The usual suspects behind such a horrific act of violence are Sunni insurgents, mainly former Baathists, or Al-Qaeda terrorists. But with so many meddlers in Iraq’s internal affairs it is difficult to point fingers with certainty. The political implications will linger for some time. The Americans will want to use the incident to reign in Al-Maliki’s government and Shiite leadership which have been pushing for a speedy US withdrawal from Iraq. On the other hand, the fact that Sunni insurgents top the list of most likely perpetrators will fan the fires of sectarian violence.

With key elections being planned early next year, violence will derail government efforts to claim a return to normalcy in Iraq. In the past few months more Iraq refugees have been crossing back and many aspects of civilian life have been celebrated by war-weary Iraqis.

In the south the last British soldier had left and Al-Maliki shifted attention to the north in a bid to work out a deal with Kurdish leaders over the future of Kirkuk, control of the northern oil fields and Kurdistan autonomy. Certainly there are many forces, foreign and domestic, that want to see Iraq destabilized. A return to sectarian confrontations will set the agenda for next year’s elections and may even determine its results.

A fresh cycle of violence in Iraq is also a blow to President Barack Obama’s efforts to see national security forces and the new Iraqi Army taking over from the US military. The success of such handing over of responsibilities is paramount if the phased withdrawal of American troops is to go on as planned. The last thing that Washington wants to see now is a flare up in terrorist attacks in Iraq and a weakening of the Baghdad government at a time when it is implementing a new strategy in Afghanistan.

Previously US and Iraqi forces appeared to have successfully chased out Al-Qaeda operatives from most of Iraq. The Awakening Movement (Sahwat), comprised Sunni tribes, has denied Al-Qaeda of their bases and cut off their supply lines, but in the aftermath Al-Maliki’s government had to face up to its commitments to the leaders and members of this movement. The alliance rests on shaky grounds. Many Sahwat members have expressed dismay at Al-Maliki’s government.

As the government tries to assess the security situation after Wednesday’s blasts, fears of growing Sunni dissatisfaction will surely resurface. The insurgency, led by former Baathists, will remind the government that the political process in Iraq can never take off without addressing the grievances of the Sunni minority. Be that as it may Al-Maliki knows that he is treading on thin ice. Any overture toward the Sunnis will likely irk his Shiite allies. Reaching a new political deal in Iraq, especially while the Americans are still occupying the country, is a seemingly impossible task.

Also lurking in the shadows is Iran, which has been busy with its own internal problems but is not detached from the Iraqi scene. Syria and Turkey are also keeping a close look at the country’s domestic developments.

With so many factors to take into consideration, Al-Maliki is once more in the hot seat. Wednesday’s bombings have shattered the government’s new-found confidence. A somber mood is taking over as the barricades and the blast walls are being set up again throughout Baghdad. They are a reminder that the city is not yet safe nor is it close to claiming a normal life for its citizens.

Whether it is Al-Qaeda or Sunni insurgents or any other party, the culprits of last week’s attacks have proved that Iraq’s march toward stability and normalcy is a long and treacherous one. The political formula by which all Iraqis can one day live in peace and harmony is nowhere to be found.

— Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist and political commentator based in Jordan.