“In my opinion, I don’t think we are going to see any change, even though inventories are high,” Qatar’s Oil Minister Abdullah Al-Attiyah told Reuters by telephone on Monday. “The oil price and fluctuation is one of the many reasons that would lead to a rollover in supply targets.”

Benchmark US crude futures were trading just shy of $80 per barrel on Monday, down from Friday’s $81.24 settlement, pressured by a strengthening dollar and expectations China might tighten credit again.

“Supply and demand are playing little role because the main thing is speculation which results sometimes from political comments and the dollar situation and high inventories,” Libya’s top energy official Shokri Ghanem said. OPEC last agreed to cut output in December 2008, slashing a record 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from production to 24.84 million bpd as the world reeled into recession.

In the past year, rising prices and a hesitant global recovery have encouraged OPEC members to add supply to the market, however.

Ministers are emphasizing the need to tighten up adherence to existing supply curbs and the issue will be on the agenda, even though demand could rise in the second half. “We need very strong compliance,” Attiyah said. “If we say rollover, it means with existing targets.”

Forecasts from OPEC as well as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US government all suggest demand has been better than expected and could continue to rise this year.

“If you take the average forecast for OPEC demand, you’re looking at 29.2 million bpd, which is in line with production. That’s an indication that things will be the same until the end of the year,” one OPEC delegate said.

OPEC, including Iraq which does not have a quota, pumped 29.28 million bpd in February, a 14-month high, according to a Reuters survey.

“I personally think that because of demand revisions upwards, there a is a need for every drop of oil being supplied,” the delegate said.

A senior Gulf OPEC delegate said demand should pick up in the second half.

“The market is well balanced,” the delegate said. “Stocks started going down in the last 2 months,” he added.

OPEC will have to watch the market closely as oil demand grows in Asia, but is still slow elsewhere.

Developed countries have shown little appetite for more oil as their economies emerge from recession, leaving oil producers to fight for market share in developing giant China.