- WASHINGTON: The US government said global oil consumption is likely grow by more than a quarter over the next quarter century, though proposed rules requiring automakers to improve fuel efficiency in the US were not factored into the forecast.
World oil demand is expected to climb to 112.2 million barrels per day in 2035, the US Energy Information Administration said in its annual international energy outlook. That would be up 27 percent from 88.20 million bpd in 2011 and is an increase of 1.4 percent over last year’s EIA forecast. “Most of the growth in liquids use is in the transportation sector, where, in the absence of significant technological advances, liquids continue to provide much of the energy consumed,” the EIA said. The EIA’s projections were based on current government policies and do not include any proposed or potential regulations, including the recently announced US fuel economy standards that would force automakers’ fleets to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. Global petroleum consumption could rise 26.9 million bpd between 2008, the baseline year for the EIA’s forecasts, and 2035. The increase in conventional oil production would meet less than half of this growth at 11.5 million bpd. OPEC producers are expected to increase spare capacity to maintain their 40 percent share of the world’s liquid fuel production over the next 24 years. But conventional oil production from the cartel was projected to supply 10.3 million bpd of the growth in total oil output, down from the 11.5 million bpd previously estimated. Non-OPEC countries were projected to add 7.1 million bpd from conventional oil supplies to world oil production, up from the 4.8 million bpd estimated last year. EIA forecasts production of unconventional sources of liquid fuels, such as biofuels and oil sands, to rise to 13.1 million bpd in 2035 from 3.9 million bpd in 2008. It sees global overall energy use increasing 53 percent over the next 24 years, led by developing nations such as China and India. Natural gas demand had the fastest growth rate among fossil fuels, rising to 169 trillion cubic feet in 2035 from 111 trillion cubic feet in 2008. As shale gas production in the US, as well as Canada and China, rises substantially, natural gas consumption will increase 1.6 percent per year from 2008.