- VIENNA: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its medium- and long-term forecasts for oil output but warned that uncertainty over energy and environmental policy was confusing the picture and could affect investment .
Brent crude oil was up $1.30 to $115.86 a barrel at late trading as OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah El-Badri said he did not expect prices to fall below $100 this year.
OPEC is unlikely to produce more than its current output of around 30 million barrels per day (bpd) within the next few months, he said at the presentation of the organization’s 2011 World Oil Outlook.
“The energy and environmental policies of consuming countries ... offer a hazy picture of their impact on future oil consumption, supply levels and overall energy demand,” El-Badri said in the report.
“Confidence is key ... It would be a damaging waste of resources to invest in capacity that is not needed,” he said.
“We have been producing about 30 million barrels a day more or less even in the absence of Libya. Libya is coming back, they are producing now 530,000 barrels a day,” El-Badri said.
By 2015, global oil demand was expected to reach 92.9 million barrels per day (mbdp), up from the 91 mbpd given in last year’s World Oil Outlook report.
In the longer-term, OPEC forecast demand at 109.7 million bpd in 2035, up 23 mbpd from 2010.
Last year’s long-term prediction extended as far as 2030.
By 2035, global oil demand growth will be driven almost entirely by countries outside the OECD group of developed economies, the report noted.
It said “the prospects for nuclear energy have clearly been affected by this year’s devastating accident at the Fukushima nuclear plant” and even looking ahead, “it is assumed that the long-term prospects for nuclear power have been negatively affected.



