KIEV: The debt restructuring that Ukraine has agreed with its private creditors has all the hallmarks of a win-win: The government can boast of persuading investors to accept a haircut, while the creditors can congratulate themselves on losing practically nothing in reality.

Yet the five-month negotiations — the equivalent of a hard night out clubbing that ends with a chaste kiss — will do little for Ukraine. Indeed, the outcome doesn't even meet the International Monetary Fund's demand that Ukraine should save $15.3 billion on its debt costs.

The deal reached on Thursday shaves 20 percent, or $3.6 billion, off the face value of $18 billion in government debt. If the same terms are agreed for some government guarantees and for Kiev municipal bonds, the write-off amount will rise to $3.8 billion. All principal repayments are deferred by four years, from 2015-2023 to 2019-2027, and the coupon rates on all bonds will be reset to 7.75 percent from the current average of 7.22 percent. Ukraine's creditors will also get growth-linked warrants that will reward them if the Ukrainian economy expands at least as fast as the IMF projects.

For the creditors, that's more or less a wash. In present value terms, the new deal guarantees them roughly the same payback as the original. For example, using a 5 percent discount rate (essentially, the opportunity cost of not investing money elsewhere), the future cash flows on $1 billion of the $2.6 billion bond maturing in July 2017 are currently worth $1.085 billion; after the deal they will be worth $1.007 billion. That's an insignificant reduction. It's similar with longer-term bonds. If all the creditors' present-value losses are added up, they will amount to about half a billion dollars.

That's a pretty good outcome for a bet on Ukrainian bonds that the creditors got badly wrong.

Ukraine is asking Russia to accept the same terms on the $3 billion bond it holds, which comes due for repayment in December. From a financial point of view, Russia would lose nothing if it accepted: The cash flow through 2019 would be worth a little more than the expected principal repayment. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, however, has already refused to restructure, showing yet again that for Russia, the matter is political. Siluanov's attitude might also signal disbelief that Ukraine would actually pay in 2019; the debt agreement does little to help Ukraine fulfill the IMF program on which its financial solvency depends.

The deal will, however, give Ukraine some short-term relief. Principal repayments due on Ukraine's international bonds from this year through 2017 amount to $6.7 billion, and will now be deferred.