Singapore slashes yearly growth forecast, stoking recession fears

Singapore’s shrinking annual growth forecast has fueled concerns over the state of the global economy. (Shutterstock)
Updated 13 August 2019

Singapore slashes yearly growth forecast, stoking recession fears

  • Global economic risks including protectionism, Brexit and China-US tariff dispute taking a toll, warns trade ministry

BENGALURU: Singapore slashed its full-year economic growth forecast on Tuesday as global conditions were seen worsening and data confirmed the slowest growth rate in a decade amid mounting fears of recession in the city-state.

The government cut its forecast range for gross domestic product in Singapore — often seen as a bellwether for global growth because international trade dwarfs its domestic economy — to zero to 1 percent from its previous
1.5 percent-2.5 percent projection.
Singapore’s downgrade adds to concerns globally about the effect of increasing protectionism on exports and production. The deterioration in the global outlook has pushed central banks to cut interest rates and consider unconventional stimulus to shield their economies.
“GDP growth in many of Singapore’s key final demand markets in the second half of 2019 is expected to slow from, or remain similar to, that recorded in the first half,” the trade ministry said.
The ministry flagged a host of growing economic risks, including Hong Kong’s political situation, the Japan-Korea trade dispute, the Sino-US tariff war, slowing growth in China and Brexit.
Final second-quarter GDP data on Tuesday showed a 3.3 percent on-quarter contraction on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis. That was slightly smaller than the 3.4 percent decline seen in the government’s advance estimate but deeper than a
2.9 percent fall predicted in a Reuters poll and a sharp contrast to the robust 3.8 percent first quarter expansion, which was driven by brisk construction activity.
Tuesday’s data also confirmed annual GDP expanded 0.1 percent in April-June from a year earlier, its slowest rate in a decade, and lower than poll expectations of 0.2 percent and the first quarter’s 1.1 percent.
Singapore’s benchmark stock index fell 1.2 percent to a two-month low in early trade, underperforming other bourses in the region.
A central bank official said after the data that it was not considering an off-cycle policy meeting. The next of its scheduled semi-annual meetings is in October, when it is widely expected to ease policy.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Singapore sees 2019 growth at zero to 1 percent.

• Economists fear recession may be around the corner.

• Central bank says it is not considering an off-cycle policy move.

Singapore has been hit hard by the Sino-US trade war, which has disrupted world supply chains in a blow to business investment and corporate profits.
Also on Tuesday, Singapore cut its full-year forecast for non-oil domestic exports to a 9 percent contraction from an 8 percent fall previously. That comes after a 26.9 percent drop in electronics exports in the second quarter year-on-year.
“With trade tensions between the US-China unlikely to abate soon, we expect exports and trade-related services to push the economy into technical recession in Q3,” said Sian Fenner, lead Asia economist at Oxford Economics.
New Zealand, India and Thailand all cut interest rates last week, signalling major concerns about the outlook for economic growth. Last month, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2008.
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in an annual speech last week that the government stood ready to stimulate the economy.
“It feels like the storm is coming if you look at the whole macroeconomic fundamentals softening,” said Selena Ling,
head of treasury and strategy at OCBC Bank.
“All the downside risks are piling up on one side,” Ling added, pointing to the myriad of global risks flagged in the trade ministry statement.
A faltering economy is expected to crimp growth at Singapore’s three local listed banks, which have so far benefited from improved margins, steady interest rates and loan growth.


Emirates trims Boeing shopping list amid 777X delays

Updated 20 November 2019

Emirates trims Boeing shopping list amid 777X delays

  • The Middle East’s largest airline in 2017 signed an initial agreement to buy 40 Boeing 787-10s in a deal worth $15.1 billion
  • But Emirates’s purchases overhaul reduces the order to 30 planes

DUBAI: Emirates Airline on Wednesday slimmed down its purchasing plans with Boeing amid delays in delivering an order of 156 of the new long-range 777X aircraft, substituting instead 30 of its 787-9 Dreamliners.
The Middle East’s largest airline in 2017 signed an initial agreement to buy 40 Boeing 787-10s in a deal worth $15.1 billion, but the overhaul reduces that to 30.
At the same time, Emirates is cutting its 156-strong order of the larger 777X to 126 planes.
The restructuring means that the carrier now has just 156 aircraft ordered from Boeing, compared to 196 previously in both firm orders and initial agreements, an airline spokeswoman confirmed to AFP.
“Emirates reduced its 777X order of 156 to 126 and substituted them with the Dreamliners,” Emirates president Tim Clark told a news conference at the Dubai Airshow.
Boeing said the airline will update its order book “by exercising substitution rights and converting 30 777 airplanes into 30 787-9s.”
Emirates said in a statement that for the 777X, it “will enter into discussions with Boeing over the next few weeks on the status of deliveries.”
Emirates in 2013 signed a $76-billion contract for 150 Boeing 777X twin-engine aircraft, powered by GE’s new GE9X engine, in what was the single largest order by value in the history of US commercial aviation.
The order was subsequently increased to 156 planes.
The 777X was originally scheduled to take off on its first test flight this summer, however its development has been slowed by issues with the engine and Boeing has pushed back the timeframe to early 2021.
The delays also hit as Boeing is in the process of completing changes required by regulators on the 737 MAX, which has been grounded worldwide after two crashes that resulted in 346 deaths.