The Balkan area made up of Bulgaria and the former Yugoslav federation which later broke up into six states — Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina — in addition to Greece, Albania and the European part of Turkey, remains the scene of endless conflicts, wars, ethnic animosities and border disputes.
Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia, saw the spark that ignited World War I. During World War II the entire area was under the control of the Soviet Union with the exception of the European part of Turkey and Greece.
After the end of the Second War and the start of the Cold War, relations among the Balkan countries experienced a relative calm and mutual cooperation. There was, however, some exception; the tensions between Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union which in turn cast their shadows on the Bulgarian/Yugoslav relations leading to further tensions between Turkey and Greece and between Turkey and Bulgaria.
In the early 1990s and following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the freeing of the Balkan states from the Soviet grip, old conflicts popped to the surface and ethnic and border disputes flared.
Throughout the era preceding the collapse of the iron curtain and after that, West European countries exercised no strong influence in the region and were never actively involved in solving the chronic problems of the peoples and ethnic groups of the Balkans. This is a region that tops the world’s list of multi-ethnicity, language and religion diversity.
Then came the ferocious ethnic war between the Serbs and Bosnians and between the Serbs and Croats. It was a war that overshadowed all other world conflicts threatening European security at a time when the Cold War was easing down. That time was characterized by conflicting stands where political interests and whims influenced the decision-making process. Then came the Dayton Peace Conference of 1995, which brought stability to Bosnia and forced a coalition government under the protection of international forces.
We can’t say the Dayton agreement has brought comprehensive peace to the region because the war has stopped. In fact, differences still exist and Bosnia is still divided among the Muslims, Serbs and Croats. Clashes never stopped as shown by recent confrontations in Mostar. This means that the moment the international forces leave the area, war will definitely break out. West European countries have not until now officially recognized the partition of Bosnia but continue to deal with it as a reality. Indeed, they created a “fake” state that is unable to survive on its own.
The same scenario applied to Kosovo where from the onset the European Union pursued a policy indicating its determination to grant the region independence while Slobodan Milosevic was still in power. However, the overthrow of Milosevic in October saw West Europe retreat from its earlier commitments that were never made official announcing that it would like that the situation to remains as it is.
Given such circumstances war is definitely going to break out in Kosovo the moment NATO forces withdraw since the new American administration has been contemplating the pulling out the American forces.
EU countries making up the alliance are applying the same policy in Macedonia now the scene of unfolding events. They adopted the Macedonian government position treating the problem as no more than an internal rebellion. Although NATO did not intervene directly, it dispatched patrols to monitor Kosovo borders and prevent the inflow of fighters and weapons into Macedonia. It also provided political cover for the Macedonian military campaign against Ethnic Albanian fighters.
Even if the Macedonian government succeeded in containing the revolution there, this would mean it has stemmed out the root causes behind the rebellion. These causes are closely linked to the complex ethnic and demographic composition of the Balkan as a whole.
From all this, we see that the EU’s permanent policy toward the problem of ethnic nationalities in the Balkan has been superficial; dealing only with the outer shape that reflects a status quo while sidestepping the root cases behind the historic conflict.
It is thus expected that wars will return to the region sooner or later as long as the situation remains unchanged and as long as the Albanian and Muslim minorities continue to feel they are marginalized with no place for them in Macedonia and Kosovo or even in Bosnia-Herzegovina itself.
I think it will take convening a historic, broad based gathering of all the conflicting parties and various political groups in Europe to discuss the historic problems and then redefine the status of these minorities or somehow seek to unite them under an acceptable framework away from the policies of half solutions. Otherwise, the problems of the Balkans will remain as heavy burden on the shoulder of a united Europe in need of stability to be able to confront the international economic challenges coming from across the Atlantic and the Far East.
