THE IRISH have rejected the Nice Treaty and so thrown the whole program of European integration into disarray. They have also put on hold the expansion of the European Union to include eastern states such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and the Baltic states. The margin in the referendum in which the Irish electorate turned down the Nice proposals was a narrow one.
There is already talk of mounting a further vote in the not too distant future, in which the integrationist camp will hope to conjur up greater support. It is one of the ironies of all the referenda associated with the European Union that they are a one-way street. No one has ever suggested that any European electorate be asked if they wish to continue on the course toward a European superstate. The pro-Europeans however insist on presenting and representing the question until they obtain the answer they want.
This is clearly what is going to happen in Ireland, as it has in Denmark. When European foreign ministers gathered yesterday in Luxembourg, there seemed no great concern that under Europe’s present constitution, every member state must endorse the fundamental changes inherent in the Treaty of Nice. It is interesting also that Ireland is the only country in Europe where a government is constitutionally bound to put any changes to its national sovereignty to the electorate. The Irish are meanwhile already being spoken of as “selfish” and “ungrateful”.
Ireland’s economy has taken off largely due to EU funding, which has seen Dublin emerge as a European financial center and the country become the home of thriving high technology businesses and call centers.
Indeed Ireland has come from being one of the poorest states in European to being in per capita terms, of above average wealth. It actually no longer qualifies on most measures for EU assisted area status.
As a founder member of the single currency, much of Ireland’s economic boom has been fueled by the interest rates set by the European Central Bank, which economists have argued, have been too low for Ireland’s particular economic requirements. The predicted melt down has not however yet happened and maybe as the ECB edges rates up, the crunch may not come at all.
The problem for those in Europe who are nervous if not downright opposed to furtner European expansion and integration, is not only that the Irish only turned down the Nice Treaty by a narrow margin, but that so few Irishmen chose to cast a vote at all.
This will encourage the new Blair government in Britain, which is broadly committed to joining the eurozone as well as great European integration and expansion. The defeated Conservative Party sought to make a major issue out of opposing the loss of the British pound and thus economic and financial control of Britain’s destiny, but the voters were not impressed. The Blair administration had always promised a referendum on signing up to the euro, as and when they considered the economic circumstances right. That vote is likely to come within the next two years and by the time the British electorate is due to chose another government in 2006, they will probably be using the euro.
Apathy was one of the characteristics of the 2001 British election, as it was in the neighboring Irish referendum. Though politicians wring their hands over their inability to interest the voters in the political process and talk about “democratic deficits”, the truth is that a win is a win, however it comes about. If this means that the Blair government can push through their European agenda, in the drowsy face of electoral apathy, no one is going to demand a second and more enthusiastic vote. The greatest danger to the European Union will be the day citizens wake up to unwelcome changes that have been foisted upon them without any further consultation.
