What to expect following grain corridor deal?

What to expect following grain corridor deal?
Russia launched an attack on the key Ukrainian port of Odesa less than a day after signing a UN-brokered deal to unblock grain exports via the Black Sea. (AFP)
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Updated 24 July 2022

What to expect following grain corridor deal?

What to expect following grain corridor deal?
  • Serious questions still remain about the implementation phase amid the continuing war in Ukraine

ANKARA: The comprehensive agreements signed on Friday in Istanbul by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN are expected to unblock the Black Sea for Ukrainian exports of grains and to help prevent a global food crisis following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

However, serious questions still remain about the implementation phase amid the continuing war in Ukraine.

Russia launched an attack on the key Ukrainian port of Odessa — a key point for wheat exports and the agreement — with Kalibr cruise missiles less than a day after signing a UN-brokered deal to unblock grain exports via the Black Sea.

The attack, which did not damage the grain storage facilities, does however mean a violation of the terms of the agreement, which emphasized that both countries would refrain from attacking port facilities used for grain transport.

Turkey says that it is worried by the Russian attack. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that Russia denied involvement and added that the incident would be investigated.

As Turkey acted in a central role in connecting Russia diplomatically to the outside world and negotiating the deal, experts believed that the country’s leadership scored points as Turkey will become one of the hubs to grain coming from Ukraine and Russia.

The historic move, dubbed the Black Sea Initiative, is the result of intense diplomacy efforts between the quartet in brokering a deal between the parties to unblock Ukrainian agricultural exports into global markets by creating a secure food corridor through the Black Sea.

Ukraine and Russia, two major exporters of grains, fertilizers and wheat, signed two memoranda of understanding with the UN and Turkey on July 22 to begin exporting grains and other food products.

The execution of the plan will be controlled through the Joint Coordination Center to be established in Istanbul in the coming days with the presence of officials from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the UN to monitor the process together and ensure the maritime safety of the vessels from and to the ports of Odesa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny with a “de facto cease-fire” in the area.

The commercial vessels will be also guided by the Ukrainian navy until they reach a secured corridor in the Black Sea.

Under the deal, which will be valid for 120 days, Ukraine will ship about 25 million tons of much-needed wheat to the world market. Ports are expected to be ready for the shipments in 10 days.

Rich Outzen, senior fellow at Atlantic Council and Jamestown Foundation, sees the deal as a validation of Ankara’s strategy of staying engaged with Russia even while aiding Ukraine.

“I think the Russians are coming under increasing military and economic pressure so were willing to concede a major lever. Their main gain is to rehabilitate their standing as a reasonable actor to some degree. They are less dependent on grain exports so I don’t think they won the transaction in a direct sense,” he told Arab News.

According to Outzen, it is a rare case of leading in diplomacy rather than being stuck between great powers.

“But, the risks attached to the deal might appear in the implementation,” he said.

“Pressure may build in Kyiv to make more deals when Moscow is facing increasing headwinds in military sense. The advantage is that Russia’s acquiescence to an economic and diplomatic process presents their first step away from maximalist military solution and recognition of need for negotiated way out — including a UN role.”

It is still unclear how Saturday’s strikes would affect the deal, but technical preparations are ongoing for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products.

Regarding the latest missile attack to Odessa, Outzen thinks it is too early to assume the end of the grain corridor deal.

“It’s a bad sign . . . but it’s not that unusual for deals to cease or limit operations in one area of an ongoing war to take some time to implement,” he said.

According to the data of the World Food Programme, the blockage over grain exports may push an additional 47 million people around the world into “acute hunger.” The agreement is expected to make available about 18 million tons of wheat and corn that have been trapped at grain silos and Ukrainian ports under the blockage of Black Sea by Russia.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute, thinks that the deal was a quite big diplomtic achievement for Turkey and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“Since the beginning of the war, Turkey followed a pro-Ukrainian neutrality, and adopted a neutral attitude by supporting Ukraine militarily and taking steps like closing straits to Russian and Ukrainian ships,” he told Arab News.

“During this whole process, Turkey maintained economic ties and lines of communication open to Russia. This stance made Turkey the only country that had the opportunity to contact the both sides,” Cagaptay said.

According to Cagaptay, Putin is playing the arsonist and the firefighter, except in this case it is the reverse.

“First, he signs under the grain export corridor as a firefighter, but then he undermines it militarily as an arsonist, while denying any foul play,” he said. “The proof of success of the deal will be seen in the implementation.”

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of German Marshall Fund of the US, also agrees that the deal is a win for all parties that are concerned.

“As Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of grain and nutrient oils to world markets, global food prices will be contained and famine will be avoided in developing countries. The UN has demonstrated its capacity to find solutions to humanitarian crises during wartime,” he told Arab News.

“While Ukraine is now able to export its grain, earn revenues, and demonstrate its capacity to provide the world markets even when it is under invasion, Turkey has demonstrated its capacity to mediate between warring parties, gained prestige, and shown an example on why it is maintaining its dialogue with Russia could actually help Ukraine,” Unluhisarcikli said.

According to Unluhisarcikli, Russia has projected benevolence and avoided being perceived as the main culprit for food shortages around the world.

“While this development has mitigated food shortage in the short run, the problem will come back soon as Ukrainian farmers will produce less due to the war and farmers elsewhere will produce less due to the fertilizer shortage, another consequence of the war,” he said.

“All of this is based on the assumption that Russia will abide by the commitments it has made. The breaking news that Russia has targeted the Odessa port one day after the agreement makes this doubtful.”


Ukraine approves sanctions against Russian ally Iran: parliament

Ukraine approves sanctions against Russian ally Iran: parliament
Updated 12 sec ago

Ukraine approves sanctions against Russian ally Iran: parliament

Ukraine approves sanctions against Russian ally Iran: parliament
KYIV: Kyiv’s parliament on Monday approved a sanctions package against Russia’s ally Iran, accused of sending weapons to Moscow during its more than year-long invasion of Ukraine.
The package was approved by parliament one day after Ukraine said Russia used Iranian Shahed drones in the largest UAV attack on the capital since the beginning of the invasion.
“The resolution synchronizes Ukrainian sanctions with the actions of the entire civilized world on the path to the complete isolation of Iran,” the Ukrainian parliament said on its website.
The package includes a ban on “military and dual-use goods” with Iran and the “suspension of economic and financial obligations in favor of residents of Iran.”
It still needs to be signed into law by Zelensky — a formality as the Ukrainian leader submitted the bill himself.
Zelensky had last week appealed directly to Iranians, asking: “Why do you want to be accomplices in Russian terror?“
His adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak said Sunday that Kyiv was hit by dozens of Shahed drones and called Iran a “terrorist regime.”
“Tehran has become a key ally of Moscow in this war, deliberately supplying it with weapons for attacks on civilian cities,” Podolyak said on Twitter.
Tehran has struck back by saying this was an attempt by Zelensky to gain the West’s military and financial support.

Afghanistan calls for ‘diplomatic’ resolution with Iran after border skirmishes

Afghanistan calls for ‘diplomatic’ resolution with Iran after border skirmishes
Taliban security forces in Nimroz province take defensive position at the Afghanistan-Iran border on May 27, 2023. (Twitter) A
Updated 34 min 16 sec ago

Afghanistan calls for ‘diplomatic’ resolution with Iran after border skirmishes

Afghanistan calls for ‘diplomatic’ resolution with Iran after border skirmishes
  • 1 Taliban officer, 2 Iranian border guards killed after shooting broke out on Saturday
  • Latest incident came amid a dispute over water rights to the Helmand River

The Taliban government has called on Iran to resolve bilateral issues “through diplomatic channels,” an Afghan official told Arab News on Monday, as tension at their border eased following skirmishes over the weekend. 

At least one Taliban officer and two Iranian border guards were killed on Saturday after shooting broke out near a border post between Afghanistan and Iran, with officials from the two countries accusing each other of opening fire first. 

The incident came amid a dispute over water rights to the Helmand River, which flows from Afghanistan into Iran’s arid eastern regions, as the neighbors face worsening drought exacerbated by climate change. 

“We don’t want relations with our neighboring countries to deteriorate. Our request to all neighboring countries, including Iran, is to resolve these issues through diplomatic channels,” Hafiz Zia Ahmad, deputy spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Arab News. 

“The current situation is normal. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is never in favor of escalation.” 

Officials have yet to provide details on what provoked the incident, in which several people on both sides were also injured. 

It occurred after Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned the Taliban earlier this month not to violate Iran’s water rights over their shared Helmand River, as laid out in a bilateral treaty signed in 1973. 

Water rights are among other issues the two countries faced since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021, including previous skirmishes at the border and reports of mistreatment against Afghan refugees in Iran, which has for decades hosted millions of them. 

In a report published on Monday, state-run IRNA news agency quoted Iran’s Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi as saying that “there is no problem at the present time” and that “everything is calm” at the Afghan-Iranian border. 

Gul Mohammed Qutrat, a police spokesman in Nimroz, said problems at the border have been addressed. 

“Currently, the situation is under control,” he told Arab News. “There is no tension at all at the border.” 


UK police to work with North African counterparts in migration crackdown

UK police to work with North African counterparts in migration crackdown
Updated 29 May 2023

UK police to work with North African counterparts in migration crackdown

UK police to work with North African counterparts in migration crackdown
  • New front in mission to ‘stop the boats’ as immigration minister begins tour of Tunisia, Algeria, Libya
  • Robert Jenrick: ‘We’re taking the fight to the people-smuggling gangs upstream’

London: UK police will work with authorities in North Africa to prevent migrants leaving for Europe this summer, The Times reported on Monday.

The move, which will see officers from the National Crime Agency operate in Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, will open a new front in Britain’s objective to “stop the boats,” following a deal with France to clamp down on people-smuggling gangs.

Italy has predicted that 400,000 migrants will try to enter Europe through its sea borders this year, with gangs overseeing vessel journeys from the North African coast across the Mediterranean.

That figure is a four-fold increase from last year, with 80,000 people already having made the journey in the first three months of 2023.

The UK Home Office has warned that the surge could lead to an increase in the number of migrants traveling northward and eventually making the trip to Britain across the English Channel, again via small vessels. In 2023 so far, 7,569 migrants have crossed from France to Britain.

The new deal with North African countries will involve intelligence- and expertise-sharing, as well as crackdowns on people-smuggling gangs.

Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick on Monday will start a five-day tour of North Africa and Europe to oversee the launch of the scheme.

He is set to visit Tunisia, Algeria and Libya to meet counterparts and discuss law-enforcement efforts to “disrupt, degrade and deny gangs at source.”

Jenrick told The Times: “We’re taking the fight to the people-smuggling gangs upstream to help prevent dangerous and unnecessary journeys long before migrants are within reach of the UK.

“Just as we’ve deepened diplomatic and security cooperation on illegal migration with France, Italy and Albania, we are working to enhance our cooperation with other key transit and source countries for migration to tackle this shared challenge. It is right that we use all the assets of the state to disrupt, degrade and deny gangs at source.”

The new scheme comes as the British government’s Illegal Migration Bill faces scrutiny in the House of Lords.

The series of proposed laws aims to expedite the detainment and deportation of migrants who arrive illegally in the UK.

After visiting Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, Jenrick will travel to Italy to meet Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has pledged to clamp down on illegal migration as part of her G7 agenda.

Jenrick will also meet French officials in Paris and tour the northern port city of Calais, the most popular departure point for migrant vessels traveling to Britain.


UN agencies warn of starvation risk in Sudan, Haiti, Burkina Faso and Mali, call for urgent aid

UN agencies warn of starvation risk in Sudan, Haiti, Burkina Faso and Mali, call for urgent aid
Updated 29 May 2023

UN agencies warn of starvation risk in Sudan, Haiti, Burkina Faso and Mali, call for urgent aid

UN agencies warn of starvation risk in Sudan, Haiti, Burkina Faso and Mali, call for urgent aid
  • The report by the World Food Program and the Food and Agriculture Organization calls for urgent attention to save both lives and jobs. Beyond the nine countries at the highest level of concern, the ag

ROME: Two UN agencies warned Monday of rising food emergencies including starvation in Sudan due to the outbreak of war and in Haiti,Burkina Faso and Mali due to restricted movements of people and goods.
The four countries join Afghanistan, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen at the highest alert levels, with communities that are already facing or projected to face starvation or otherwise risk a slide “toward catastrophic conditions.”
The report by the World Food Program and the Food and Agriculture Organization calls for urgent attention to save both lives and jobs. Beyond the nine countries rating the highest level of concern, the agencies said 22 countries are identified as “hotspots’’ risking acute food insecurity.
“Business-as-usual pathways are no longer an option in today’s risk landscape if we want to achieve global food security for all, ensuring that no one is left behind.” said Qu Dongyu, FAO Director-General.
He called for immediate action in the agricultural sector “to pull people back from the brink of hunger, help them rebuild their lives and provide long-term solution to address the root causes of food insecurities.”
The report cited a possible spillover of the conflict in Sudan, deepening economic crises in poor nations and rising fears that the El Nino climatic phenomenon forecast for mid-2023 could provoke climate extremes in vulnerable countries.
The report warns that 1 million people are expected to flee Sudan, while an additional 2.5 million inside Sudan face acute hunger in the coming months as supply routes through Port Sudan are disrupted by safety issues.
WFP Executive Director Cindy McCain warned of “catastrophic”consequences unless there is clear action to “help people adapt to a changing climate and ultimately prevent famine.”
“Not only are more people in more places around the world going hungry, but the severity of the hunger they face is worse than ever,” McCain said.


Russia hits Ukrainian military facility and Odesa port in air strikes

Russia hits Ukrainian military facility and Odesa port in air strikes
Updated 29 May 2023

Russia hits Ukrainian military facility and Odesa port in air strikes

Russia hits Ukrainian military facility and Odesa port in air strikes
  • Kyiv comes under heavy attack for second successive night
  • Moscow says Ukraine has stepped up drone and sabotage attacks against targets inside Russia as Kyiv prepares for the counter offensive

KYIV: Russia put five aircraft out of action in an attack on a military target in western Ukraine and caused a fire at the Black Sea port of Odesa in heavy air strikes early on Monday, Ukrainian officials said.
Kyiv also came under intense attack for the second successive night, but reported no significant damage and said that most of the drones and missiles fired at the capital overnight had been shot down.
The attacks were part of a new wave of increasingly frequent and intense air strikes launched by Moscow this month as Kyiv prepares to launch a counteroffensive to try to take back territory occupied by Russian forces.
In a rare acknowledgement of damage suffered at a military “target,” Ukraine did not name the site or sites hit in the western region of Khmelnitskiy but said work was under way to restore a runway and five aircraft were taken out of service.
A large military airfield was located in the region before the war.
“At the moment, work is continuing to contain fires in storage facilities for fuel and lubricants and munitions,” the Khmelnitskiy region governor’s office said.
Ukraine’s military said the attack on Odesa port had caused a fire and damaged infrastructure but did not specify whether the damage threatened grain exports.
Ukraine is an important global grain supplier and the port is vital for shipping agricultural products abroad. It is also one of three included in a UN-brokered deal on the safe export of grain via the Black Sea.
“A fire broke out in the port infrastructure of Odesa as a result of the hit. It was quickly extinguished. Information on the extent of the damage is being updated,” the military’s southern command said on Facebook.

UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACK EXPECTED
Russia, which began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine just over 15 months ago, did not immediately comment on the attacks. Reuters was not able to independently verify the reports on the scale of the attacks.
After months of attacks on energy facilities, Russia is now increasingly targeting military facilities and supplies to try to disrupt Ukraine’s preparations for its counterattack, Kyiv says.
Moscow says Ukraine has stepped up drone and sabotage attacks against targets inside Russia as Kyiv prepares for the counteroffensive.
Ukraine said it had shot down 29 of the 35 drones and 37 of 40 cruise missiles fired overnight by Russia.
The Kyiv military administration said its air defenses had shot down over 40 of the “targets” fired at it in what was Russia’s 15th air assault on the city this month.
“Another difficult night for the capital,” Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on the Telegram messaging channel.
The attack follows the largest drone barrage launched on Kyiv the previous night, which killed one person and injured several. In Sunday’s attack, 36 drones were downed over Kyiv.
“With these constant attacks, the enemy seeks to keep the civilian population in deep psychological tension,” Serhiy Popko, the head of the city’s military administration said.