JEDDAH, 30 June — The India-Pakistan summit slated for July 14 after a hiatus of two years will probably be the last opportunity for the two archrivals to mend fences and make a new beginning.
The festering Kashmir dispute that triggered two of the three wars between the neighbors has the potential of inflaming another catastrophic conflict if a solution to the long-standing row is not found soon.
The October 1999 army coup that deposed former Premier Nawaz Sharif and propelled Gen. Musharraf to power landed the country in predicaments — it prompted donor countries to suspend economic assistance; drew international flak and brought Pakistan closer to being branded a pariah state. The situation now stands changed. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have backed the military government’s reform program aimed at tiding over the nation’s economic problems.
The army government, in a short span, has been able to take drastic measures which an elected government could not have taken in years. Some of the measures taken by the government appear to be counterproductive as those would fuel price hike and unemployment, but in the long run are expected to yield tangible results.
Politicians who have always thrived on rhetoric could not alleviate the sufferings of the people who voted for them. Former premiers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were dismissed twice on charges of misrule and corruption. Corruption crept into judiciary and bureaucracy.
All institutions were tinkered with, creating a situation where people had lost all hopes.
Though the army takeover cannot be justified and is no substitute for democracy, the situation that shaped up in Pakistan during the past decade made such drastic measures indispensable.
The upcoming summit calls for flexibility on the part of both India and Pakistan for a successful conclusion. Talks foundered in the past because neither India nor Pakistan showed sincerity.
Analysts had scaled down expectations of a breakthrough after the two sides recently began issuing statements reaffirming their known positions. They probably later realized that trading charges and issuing irresponsible statements would only vitiate the atmosphere. Now the trash has stopped.
The military government of Gen. Musharraf is very strong although it does not enjoy the mandate of the people. It can make important decisions. Political expediencies that were major hurdles in the past remain no more. If the army government reaches any agreement with India, politicians will not be able to undo it. The reason — army will continue to play a dominating role in future.
Any political government that comes to power after general elections in 2002 will have to draw its strength from the army. The National Security Council that the present government is contemplating will give army a say in all future governments. Hence, the army will remain in the center of power for a long time to come.
Kashmir issue has weighed heavily on Pakistan’s economy and also brought India under fire.
The Kashmiris fighting for their right to self-determination deserve that they be given a choice to decide their future.
Musharraf was right when he chided religious groups for issuing irresponsible statements and also issued a veiled warning to groups fighting Indian rule in Kashmir. A political government could never have issued such warnings.
Another important decision that the military government has taken is the capping of defense spending. Defense budget had always stirred controversy in the past with political parties pushing for a hike to ward off Indian threat. Civilian governments had to succumb to political pressure and make substantial increase in defense allocations every year. This year the military government chose not to increase defense allocations in the budget. In real terms, the defense budget this year is less than the previous one in view of the depreciation in rupee.
Pakistan is in no position to compete with India in defense spending — the total outlay of Pakistan’s budget stands at $12 billion while India’s defense budget alone is in the vicinity of $13 and $13.4 billion.
Gen. Musharraf appears sincere to break the impasse on Kashmir. The Indian government should also show flexibility. Subjugating Kashmiris for long is not possible. They should be given their right to self-determination.
India should realize it would be a prudent step to reach a settlement on Kashmir rather to harbor enmity of a neighbor.
Musharraf, on the other hand, should also bear in mind he has a very important role to play. He should, as he says, try to change the course of history before he himself recedes into the mists of history like his predecessors.
