The Dayton Peace Agreement is in danger of coming unraveled, as nationalist Bosnian Croats mount a campaign of intimidation in an attempt to create a separate Croat mini state within Bosnia-Herzegovina. Still sometimes seemingly at sea in the complex world of Balkan politics, the UN international supervisors who control the NATO-led Bosnian Stabilization Force (SFOR) have become unwitting contributors to the hardening of attitudes among the Croat community.
The catalyst was the enforced closure earlier this year of the Hercegovacka Banka which, the international authorities believed with some justice, had become a major source of funding for the nationalist Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) and its private army of thugs. Unfortunately, the suspension of the bank’s activities meant that many ordinary Bosnian Croats found their savings placed out of their control. Businesses were suddenly without funds and local organizations, even charities, could no longer draw on their accounts. In retrospect, there had to be a better way to take over the bank and perhaps run its with outside professional managers, so that its legitimate banking activities could have been continued, and minimum disruption caused to daily life among Bosnian Croats. In seeking to clamp down on hard-liners, the authorities delivered a blow to people of all political views and thus helped polarize opinion toward the extremists.
A further questionable judgement has been the weeding out of all extremists from the multiethnic Bosnian administration. This, unfortunately, has brought about the current mounting reign of terror in the Bosnian Croat community. Moderate politicians are being targeted for bomb attacks and their supporters are being threatened or beaten up. The extremist HDZ is demanding that Croat Bosnians be given the same independent mini state within Bosnia as were the Serbs under the Dayton agreement. But just as the Republika Srpska is becoming an increasingly incoherent and uneconomic entity, now that there is no Slobodan Milosevic in Belgrade to underwrite it, so Bosnian Croat extremists are losing support in Croatia.
This month Croatian Prime Minister Ivica Racan actually called for the abolition of Republika Srpska as a precondition of real stability. The current Croat government is, therefore, unlikely to sponsor a similar breakaway Bosnian Croat community. The key to Bosnia’s future, however, still lies with the international peacemakers and the UN’s High Representative Wolfgang Petritsch. The short-term toughness over the likes of Hercegovacka Banka needs to be backed by a clear long-term commitment that SFOR’s troops will be there for as long as they are needed. At the moment, there are siren voices saying that the SFOR deployment should be rethought with a view to reducing its role. This is music to the ears of the extremists, who know how to play a waiting game.
What is necessary is a clear and consistent demonstration of SFOR determination. Cracking down on extremist thugs and protecting moderates in the Croat community would be a useful start. This should be done with the help and backing of Zagreb. Persuading Belgrade to pull the plug on the cancerous Republika Srpska would be a major second step.
