Strength and stubbornness are not the same things. Indonesia needed a strong leader after fallen President Suharto’s 33 autocratic years of power. His immediate successor B.J. Habibie was clearly not that man. Unfortunately, in Abdurrahman Wahid, the compromise candidate in whom so many Indonesians placed their faith when he was elected in 1999, they found an extremely stubborn but weak leader.
It is now clear that Wahid, frail and almost blind, who started upon the crest of a nationwide wave of good will, was never up to the job. His initial moves to clip the wings of Indonesia’s dominant military and his insistence upon a free press were welcomed. But within a few weeks of taking office, he was demonstrating alarmingly erratic qualities, which were compounded by his inability to delegate and his cavalier treatment of friends, aides, and the institutions of the state.
His moves against the military and the network of corruption that had thrived in the Suharto years had made him powerful enemies. But these people did not have to do very much to undermine the president. He was doing the job for them.
Wahid may very well not have been involved in the two separate corruption scandals that broke last year. But that no longer really mattered. The economic plight of the vast majority of Indonesians was continuing to worsen. Meanwhile, this diverse country of 225 million — the world’s largest Muslim state — with no less than 300 different languages, was in ever-greater danger of breaking up. Civil war is the terrible danger that stalks Indonesia today.
It was massive corruption and spectacular economic failure that finally brought about the popular revolt that precipitated Suharto’s fall. The people of Indonesia found themselves united in their fury at the incompetence of their leaders. But now that Wahid, the popular choice who replaced the hated Suharto, has also been found to be outstandingly incompetent, there will be distinctly less enthusiasm for his successor, Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia’s first leader, President Sukarno.
However, the new president has the virtue of knowing the political machine. She grew up in the presidential palace, saw her father’s ouster and spent a long time avoiding politics until drawn into the opposition to the increasingly failing Suharto regime. The late Sukarno is still held in popular esteem and his daughter draws on this enthusiasm. But she knows better than most that she must balance the interests of the powerful military and bureaucracy, both deeply corrupt, with any program for real economic change. A centralist at heart like her father, she will need the military to keep the country together. But will that mean that her hands are tied on genuine and lasting reforms?
Amien Rais, chairman of the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR), has emerged as a powerful kingmaker, involved in Suharto’s downfall, Wahid’s promotion and now the elevation of Sukarnoputri. He is widely believed to have his own eyes on the presidency. Before too long, unless Sukarnoputri demonstrates her strength, he may use his parliamentary power base to undermine the new president. Further instability is the last thing Indonesia needs.
