KARACHI, 24 August — With the induction of a newly-designed local government system, the announcement of a road map for the revival of democracy in the country and the initiation of a number of mega projects to kick-start the ailing economy, winds of change are seen to be blowing in Pakistan. But it is difficult to identify the direction in which these winds are blowing. What is evident, however, is the aspiration of President Gen. Pervez Musharraf to remain a constant factor in this process. And that has cast a shadow on the prospects of a meaningful restoration of democracy in the country. Pakistan’s Independence Day on Aug. 14 was, of course, marked as the beginning of major initiatives. It was on that date that the new system of governance at the grass-roots level was formally launched. But the focus rested on Gen. Musharraf’s announcement of a road map for the restoration of democracy, which included the dates for elections to national and provincial assembles. Also, Gen. Musharraf set into motion a bold economic plan to build large infrastructure projects. During the past week, he has been traveling to different regions to lay the foundation stone of these projects and promise an economic revival that would alleviate poverty and generate employment. So far as the road map for the revival of democracy is concerned, the impression that is gaining strength is that it has left too many questions unanswered. Writing in the independent print media, analysts have wondered about the nature of democracy that is to be put into place after the October 2002 elections. Much will depend on the kind of constitutional amendments that are introduced by the present rulers, ostensibly to ensure the continuation of Gen. Musharraf as the president and with enhanced powers. In that sense, very divisive constitutional issues are likely to be raised in the near future. Pakistan’s 1973 constitution, which has repeatedly been held in abeyance and changed in the wake of military intervention of Gen. Ziaul Haq, prescribes a parliamentary system in which the government is headed by a powerful prime minister. An important issue is whether the armed forces would have any constitutional role to play. Meanwhile, the impact that the government’s new economic policies would have on the national scene may become crucial for the survival of the arrangement that is being devised by Gen. Musharraf. A number of commentators have detected some silver lining in the launching of the mega projects to the extent that they would generate employment and improve the physical infrastructure. They have noted that it has taken this government almost two years to realize that it cannot kick-start the economy with the IMF prescription of macroeconomic stabilization. At the same time, the capacity of the present government to generate funds for these mega projects has been questioned. The total cost of the projects that have been proposed is estimated to be around 200 billion rupees. This amount is needed to be mobilized in three to five years. It has been reported that China and Saudi Arabia have already indicated the amount they would invest in some of these projects. A large part of the amount would perhaps be raised through deficit financing and some also from the market. In this perspective, the scheme has been called very optimistic. Analysts have agreed that the construction of the mega projects like highways, dams and water supply schemes would surely increase the debt burden of the country and cause inflation. But it is hoped that if this activity does generate a million jobs in three years, as Gen. Musharraf has promised, then considerable economic activity can be triggered by the money spent by the newly employed people. Some observers worry that the real impact of this initiative will take time to materialize when the situation demands some quick remedies. It has been noted that Pakistan cannot become a vibrant economic entity without bringing its law and order situation under control. The recent crackdown on sectarian groups known to be involved in terrorist activities and the campaign to flush out unlawful arms are part of the strategy to improve law and order. But the overall situation is not at all satisfactory, particularly in the southern province of Sindh, the capital of which, Karachi, is seen as the engine of economic growth. On Tuesday, Sindh’s Cabinet reviewed the law and order situation in the province and the governor expressed, according to reports, his “anger” over rising crimes in different areas. Whether it is the battle on the economic front or the working of the new system of district governments, the climax will come when political activity is revived three months before the elections in October next year. In the absence of the two former prime ministers, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, there is no major political figure capable of exciting popular emotion. But politics has a way of arousing deep passions and disrupting the designs of non-political rulers.
