Today, on the second anniversary of his military coup, President Musharraf of Pakistan finds himself in strong position, despite anti-American and anti-government demonstrations in several cities. Both within the country and abroad, he is no longer seen as a soldier, but as a statesman, pursuing both Pakistan’s best interests and those of the international community. He has ensured that it does not become a pariah state or that India grabs the role of America’s strategic partner in South and Central Asia.
In the process, Pakistan has regained an international clout not seen for years. It has brought an end to US sanctions, smoothed pathway to fresh international credit and promised the possibility of a good slice of its foreign debt being wiped out. His moves on the domestic front further enhance his new image of a determined leader. Opposition leaders linked to the Taleban have been placed under house arrest, the forces of law and order have adopted a get-tough approach to demonstrators, and the military and the secret services have been purged of those sympathetic to the Taleban.
Opponents may complain about the country selling itself for American dollars, but that opinion is held only by an extreme minority. Mainstream Pakistani public opinion supports neither the rioters nor the Taleban. Horrified, it watched the country degenerate in recent years into corruption, economic chaos, political extremism and violence — and was powerless to stop the rot. It will breathe a sigh of relief at Musharraf’s latest moves: it wants a Pakistan that is politically and economically stable — and respected internationally. Immediately after the coup, there were reports that he wanted to crack down on the extremists. His failure to do so was explained as weakness. It was said that he did not dare to tackle them. It seems he was waiting for the right opportunity. It has certainly come now — and he has seized it with alacrity, using it to weaken and then expunge the hard-liners. Much will, however, depend on how long the conflict in Afghanistan goes on, what course it takes and how many civilians are killed. These are the factors that can change Pakistani public opinion. Musharraf will hope for a short campaign, with the Taleban replaced by a broad-based Afghan government as quickly as possible. If that happens, no one in Pakistan, nor anywhere else for that matter, can have any justifiable objection. If it is not short and Afghanistan continues to suffer, it is going to be a major test of his metal.
But he has determination — and this crisis may be the making of Musharraf. Unlike the demonstrators with their blind rage in which the only victims have been other Pakistanis, he knows the path Pakistan needs to take, and why it needs to. The going may get tough. But twice now he has shown himself to be a decisive operator, seizing opportunities when they come: first at the time of the coup when he faced the threat of his plane being crashed while returning from Sri Lanka, and now by purging the army and secret services of hard-liners.
The verdict of his admirers, who are in a majority at the moment, is that he is a man of calm strength. He will need both those qualities — calmness and strength — in the trying days ahead.
