EU gas markets brace for price surge after latest Russia gas cut

Lower gas flows from Russia ahead of and following its February invasion of Ukraine have already pushed up European prices by nearly 400 percent over the past year, sending electricity costs soaring.
Lower gas flows from Russia ahead of and following its February invasion of Ukraine have already pushed up European prices by nearly 400 percent over the past year, sending electricity costs soaring.
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Updated 04 September 2022

EU gas markets brace for price surge after latest Russia gas cut

EU gas markets brace for price surge after latest Russia gas cut

LONDON: European gas buyers already grappling with record-high prices face further pain when the markets open on Monday after Russia said one of its main supply pipelines to Europe would remain shut indefinitely, sparking fears over energy rationing.

Lower gas flows from Russia ahead of and following its February invasion of Ukraine have already pushed up European prices by nearly 400 percent over the past year, sending electricity costs soaring.

Europe has accused Russia of weaponizing energy supplies in what Moscow has called an “economic war” with the West over the fallout from the Ukraine conflict, while Moscow blames Western sanctions and technical issues for supply disruptions.

The Nord Stream pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, historically supplied around a third of the gas exported from Russia to Europe, but was already running at just 20 percent of capacity before flows were halted last week for maintenance.

Expectations were high Russia’s state-controlled energy giant Gazprom would restart flows at 20 percent after the latest stoppage, leading benchmark Dutch TTF gas prices to fall back around 40 percent from Aug. 26’s record high to close at just over €200 per MWh on Friday.

But after Russia scrapped a Saturday deadline for flows to resume, saying it had discovered a fault during maintenance, prices are likely to surge again, analysts said.

“On Friday... the market was already pricing in Nord Stream 1 (NS1) flows coming back,” Energy Aspects gas analyst Leon Izbicki said. “We expect a significantly stronger open for the TTF on Monday.”

Sky-high power costs linked to surging gas prices have already forced some energy-hungry industries, including fertilizer and aluminum makers, to scale back production, and led EU governments to pump billions into schemes to help households.

The impact of the latest cut would depend on Europe’s ability to attract gas from other sources, Jacob Mandel, a senior associate for commodities at Aurora Energy Research, said.

“Supply is hard to come by, and it becomes harder and harder to replace every bit of gas that doesn’t come from Russia,” he said.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Europe rapidly launched plans to cut its dependence on Russian fuels, switching to alternative suppliers of gas and other fuels and pushing faster deployment of clean energy supplies.

Germany has begun developing liquefied natural gas terminals to enable it to receive gas from global suppliers and move away from Russian gas imports.

“There’s plenty of scope to replace that (Russian) gas with LNG imports for now, but when the weather turns cold and demand starts to pick up in the winter in Europe and Asia, there’s only so much LNG out there that Europe can import,” Mandel said.

Klaus Mueller, president of the Federal Network Agency energy regulator, said in August that even if Germany’s gas stores were 100 percent full, they would be empty in 2.5 months if Russian gas flows were halted completely.

Europe last week met early a target to fill its gas stocks by 80 percent by November. EU stocks are currently 81 percent full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data, with Germany’s stores at 85 percent full.

Izbicki said prices would need to reach an average of €400 per MWh between September 2022 and end-October 2023 to encourage enough sellers to send gas to storage for the EU to meet its targets for next year ahead of winter 2023.


Oil Updates - Prices fall as US holds off refilling strategic reserve

Oil Updates - Prices fall as US holds off refilling strategic reserve
Updated 24 March 2023

Oil Updates - Prices fall as US holds off refilling strategic reserve

Oil Updates - Prices fall as US holds off refilling strategic reserve

TOKYO: Oil prices extended losses on Friday on worries about a potential oversupply after US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said refilling the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve may take several years, according to Reuters.

Brent crude fell 24 cents, or 0.32 percent, to $75.67 a barrel by 0412 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 24 cents, 0.34 percent, to $69.72 a barrel.

Both benchmarks, which fell about 1 percent on Thursday, were still on track for a weekly gain of about 3 percent-4 percent, recovering from their biggest weekly declines in months last week due to the banking sector crisis and worries about a possible recession.

“There is a sell-off from the view that the United States will not refill oil reserve even if the WTI prices are at $67-$72 a barrel,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan Securities.

The White House said in October it would buy back oil for the SPR when prices were at or below about $67-$72 per barrel.

Granholm told lawmakers that it would be difficult to take advantage of the low prices this year to add to stockpiles, which are currently at their lowest level since 1983 following sales directed by President Joe Biden last year.

Nissan Securities’ Kikukawa said continued crude supply from Russia to the global market was also weighing on oil which, together with a lingering anxiety about the banking sector, could push benchmarks to test their lows hit earlier this week.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said a previously announced cut of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Russia’s oil production would be from an output level of 10.2 million bpd in February, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.

That would mean Russia is aiming to produce 9.7 million bpd between March and June, when the production cut will be in force, according to Novak — a much smaller reduction in output than Moscow previously indicated.

The oil price downside was, however, cushioned by strong demand expectations from China, with Goldman Sachs saying commodities demand was surging in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, with oil demand topping 16 million bpd.

The bank forecast Brent would reach $97 a barrel in the second quarter of 2024.

A more than 1 percent decline in the dollar in the past week, which makes commodities priced in the greenback cheaper for holders of other currencies, capped downside price pressures. 


Scandal-plagued Japan tech giant Toshiba gets tender offer

Scandal-plagued Japan tech giant Toshiba gets tender offer
Updated 24 March 2023

Scandal-plagued Japan tech giant Toshiba gets tender offer

Scandal-plagued Japan tech giant Toshiba gets tender offer
  • Toshiba's deep troubles began with a sprawling accounting scandal in 2015, involving books being doctored for years
  • Its US nuclear arm Westinghouse filed for bankruptcy in 2017, after years of deep losses as safety costs soared

TOKYO: Scandal-embattled Japanese electronics and technology manufacturer Toshiba has accepted a 2 trillion yen ($15 billion) tender offer from Japan Industrial Partners, a buyout fund made up of the nation’s major banks and companies.
If the proposal succeeds, it will be a major step in Toshiba’s yearslong turnaround effort, allowing it to go private and delist from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. But overseas activist investors own a significant part of Toshiba’s shares, and it’s unclear if they will be happy with the latest bid.
Tokyo-based Toshiba Corp. announced its board accepted the bid at 4,620 yen ($36) a share late Thursday. Toshiba closed at 4,213 yen ($32) a share Thursday, and is trading at 4,474 yen ($34) early Friday. The offer was announced after trading closed in Tokyo.
The move comes while the world’s financial sector is in turmoil over the ripple effects from the recent collapse of banks in the US
The critical point is that the latest offer, if successful, will keep Toshiba’s business Japanese in an alliance with Japanese partners.
Japan Industrial Partners, set up in 2002 to restructure Japanese companies, lists big names among where it has invested, such as Sony, Hitachi, Olympus and NEC.
The consortium includes about 20 Japanese companies, such as Orix Corp., a financial services company, electronics manufacturer Rohm Co. and the megabanks such as Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., according to Japanese media reports.
The deep troubles at Toshiba began with a sprawling accounting scandal in 2015, involving books being doctored for years. That added to its woes related to its nuclear energy business.
Its US nuclear arm Westinghouse filed for bankruptcy in 2017, after years of deep losses as safety costs soared. Toshiba is also involved in the decommissioning effort at the Fukushima nuclear plant heavily damaged by an earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.
Toshiba has gone through several presidents over the years, as the brand once prized for making household appliances, laptops, batteries and computer chips, became the target of overseas activist shareholders.
The latest proposal still needs to go through regulatory reviews in several countries, including the US, Vietnam, Germany and Morocco. The process is expected to take several months.
Toshiba has been trying to go private in recent years. Proposals to split Toshiba into three, and then two, companies were rejected by shareholders. Delisting will allow Toshiba to leave behind the activist investors.
Toshiba had its humble beginnings in a telegraph equipment factory in 1875. The brand had been synonymous with the power of modern Japan’s manufacturing sector. It has sold parts of its operations, including its flash-memory business, now known as Kioxia, although Toshiba remains a stakeholder in Kioxia.
Whether Toshiba can get back on a solid growth track remains uncertain. Last month, Toshiba lowered its profit forecast for the fiscal year through March to 130 billion yen ($1 billion), down from an earlier projection for a 190 billion yen ($1.5 billion) profit.
 


US Commerce Department adds 14 Chinese firms to red flag list

US Commerce Department adds 14 Chinese firms to red flag list
Updated 24 March 2023

US Commerce Department adds 14 Chinese firms to red flag list

US Commerce Department adds 14 Chinese firms to red flag list
  • Chinese Embassy accuses US of abusing export control measures and using state power to suppress and contain foreign companies

WASHINGTON: The Biden administration on Thursday added 14 Chinese companies to a red flag list, forcing US exporters to conduct greater due diligence before shipping goods to them because US officials have been unable to inspect the listed entities.
Being added to the list can potentially start a 60-day clock that could trigger much tougher penalties.
“Enforcing our export controls is a crucial part of protecting American national security,” US Deputy Secretary of Commerce Don Graves said in a statement following the announcement. “We are committed to using all of the tools at our disposal to establish how advanced US technology is being used around the globe.”
ECOM International and HK P&W Industry Co. Ltd. were among those added to the list and did not respond to requests for comment.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said “China strongly deplores and firmly opposes” moves by the United States to “abuse export control measures” and use “state power to suppress and contain foreign companies.”
“The US side should immediately stop its wrong practices. China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies,” the spokesperson added.
The United States has used restrictions on exports of US goods as a key tool to thwart Beijing’s technological advances, ratcheting up tensions between the two countries.

 


Fed comments, US crude stock build hit oil market

Fed comments, US crude stock build hit oil market
Updated 23 March 2023

Fed comments, US crude stock build hit oil market

Fed comments, US crude stock build hit oil market

LONDON: Oil prices dipped on Thursday, having hit their lowest since late 2021 earlier this week, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted banking sector credit risks for the world’s largest economy, while US crude stockpiles swelled.

Brent crude futures were down 54 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $76.15 a barrel at 0929 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 62 cents, or 0.9%, to $70.28.

Powell said on Wednesday that banking industry stress could trigger a credit crunch, with “significant” implications for an economy that US central bank officials projected would slow even more this year than previously thought.

HIGHLIGHTS

Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that demand from China continued to surge across the commodity complex, with oil demand topping 16 million barrels per day.

The bank forecast Brent to reach $97 a barrel in the second quarter of 2024.

US crude oil stockpiles rose unexpectedly last week to their highest in nearly two years, latest data from the Energy Information Administration showed.

Crude inventories rose in the week to March 17 by 1.1 million barrels to 481.2 million barrels, the highest since May 2021. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 1.6-million-barrel drop.

The dollar slid to a seven-week low against a basket of other currencies, providing a price floor for oil as a weaker greenback makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Also supportive, Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that demand from China, the world’s biggest oil importer, continued to surge across the commodity complex, with oil demand topping 16 million barrels per day.

The bank forecast Brent to reach $97 a barrel in the second quarter of 2024.


Closing bell: TASI up on rising investor confidence 

Closing bell: TASI up on rising investor confidence 
Updated 23 March 2023

Closing bell: TASI up on rising investor confidence 

Closing bell: TASI up on rising investor confidence 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose by 95.88 points, or 0.93 percent, on Thursday to close at 10,446.39, driven by a rise in investor confidence, on the first session of Ramadan. 

The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index went up by 1.01 percent to 1,423.28, while the parallel market Nomu lost 37.60 points, or 0.20 percent, to close at 19,056.84. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index on Thursday was SR4.4 billion ($1.17 billion).

The top performer on Thursday was Al Kathiri Holding Co. as its share prices increased by 10 percent to SR50.60. 

Some of the other major gainers on Thursday were National Medical Care Co. and Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Co., whose shares went up by 9.95 percent and 6.45 percent respectively. 

Thimar Development Holding Co. was the worst performer on Thursday as its share prices went down by 9.98 percent to SR48.25 at the closing bell. 

Another worst performer on Thursday was Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance Co. whose share prices went down by 9.41 percent to SR13.58. 

On the announcements front, Amana Cooperative Insurance Co. reported that it trimmed its losses to SR43.80 million in 2022, from SR121.40 million in 2021. However, that had no positive impact on its share prices which fell by 1.25 percent to SR9.46. 

Saudi Arabian Cooperative Insurance Co. also narrowed its losses in 2022. Compared to the SR62.6 million loss it incurred in 2021, the company trimmed its losses to SR37.2 million in 2022. As the company performed well in 2022 compared to 2021, its share prices rose by 1.90 percent to SR11.82. 

Another company that announced its financial report on Thursday was Sumou Real Estate Co. The firm’s net profit in 2022 rose to SR87.6 million, an 8 percent rise from SR81.2 million in the previous year. 

As the company’s profit increased, Sumou Real Estate Co.’s board of directors declared a 10 percent cash dividend for the second half of 2022, at SR1 per share, amounting to SR37.5 million, a bourse statement revealed. 

Sumou Real Estate Co.’s share prices remained unchanged at SR45 at the end of today’s trading session. 

Meanwhile, Saudi Top for Trading Co. also announced its financial results for 2022. The company reported a net profit of SR32.77 million for 2022, an increase of 92 percent from a net profit of SR17.09 million in the year-earlier period. Amid a rise in profit, the company’s share prices dipped 0.53 percent to SR93.

Saudi Airlines Catering Co. reported a net profit of SR257.10 million in 2022, from SR14.10 million in 2021. Driven by the increase in profit, the company’s board of directors recommended a 5 percent cash dividend, at SR0.5 per share, for 2022, amounting to SR41 million. 

Saudi Airlines Catering Co.’s massive rise in net profit was also reflected in its share price, as it went up by 5.06 percent to SR85.10.