China is doing well from George W. Bush’s war on terrorism, thanks to an adroit switch of foreign policy tactics. The US president began his term in office with the embarrassing row over the downed American spy plane. Sino-US relations, which had prospered under Clinton, looked set for a long frosty period. Furthermore, in the normal course of events, Beijing could have been expected to hold back from the US drive against international terror, as it did from NATO’s aerial bombardment of Serbia, and from the US-led coalition for the liberation of Kuwait.
However, the Sept. 11 outrages have found the Chinese leadership in a different mood. There was genuine shock in Beijing at the New York and Washington attacks, but thereafter it was clearly calculated that China had more to gain from backing Washington than obstructing it. The most obvious opportunity that Beijing has seized is to sideline the Taiwanese government. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit now being held in Taiwan. But Beijing, as host, chose not to issue a formal invitation to Taiwan’s nominated representative, former vice president, Li Yuan-zu. In normal circumstances, this would have caused an angry reaction from Washington. Instead, we have seen pictures of President Bush talking warmly with his Chinese counterpart, Jiang Zemin, in meetings before the APEC summit settled down to business.
But the thinking behind China’s new style diplomacy goes further than gaining an advantage over Taiwan. China has its own domestic problems and has claimed that Osama Bin Laden has been funding rebels in Xinjiang province where more than half the 15 million population are Muslim. This region is home to the ancient Uighur Turkic people, whose nomadic civilization was such that it was their written language which was adopted by their Mongol conquerors, who had no script of their own. Beijing ‘s rule has always sat uneasily in Xinjiang province. The breakup of the Soviet Union encouraged Muslim separatists who feel little identity with far away Beijing. This largely desert region even escaped the worst excesses of the Maoist Cultural Revolution, simply because it was and remains such a hostile environment. Since 1998, there has been a rising tide of insurrection with attacks on Chinese police posts and the murder of Beijing’s officials.
The Chinese solution has been to move in hundreds of thousands of ethnic Chinese, in an attempt to overwhelm the Uighur population. This has however served to deepen disaffection with Beijing among the locals. Whether or not Bin Laden really is bankrolling and training the rebels, Beijing would wish this to be believed. Despite US criticism of China’s human rights record, a Bin Laden connection would give the Chinese government a freer hand to suppress dissent in Xinjiang.
This would seem to mirror Washington’s view of Russian action in Chechnya, where it seems clear there has been an understanding that the US will turn a blind eye to continued Russian oppression, in return for Moscow’s unstinting support of the anti-terrorist drive.
In this conflict, there are more winners and losers than the obvious ones.
