If all goes according to plan on Nov. 4, Tehran is expected to witness its biggest anti-American demonstration in more than two decades. The occasion is the 23rd anniversary of the seizure of the US Embassy compound by a gang of revolutionary "students". The planned demonstrations will revive a tradition that had been left to die down since Muhammad Khatami was first elected president in 1997.
The initiative to revive the anti-American tradition was taken by the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei who is expected to make a personal appearance on the occasion. For the past week almost anybody who is somebody in the Khomeinist establishment has been making a point of joining the bandwagon. Even Khatami, who is regarded by many as a covert supporter of normalization with Washington, has taken care to reaffirm his anti-American credentials.
The question is, why now?
Part of the answer must be found in the recent riots in Tehran and several other cities. Many within the establishment believe that the riots, the biggest ever since the mullahs seized power in 1979, were instigated by elements with some links with the US. That there is a feeling of unease in Tehran is undeniable. Former President Rafsanjani has even gone as far as suggesting that the US may be preparing to hit Iran once it has finished off the Taleban in Afghanistan.
Washington’s decision to back Afghanistan’s former Kini Muhammad Zahir Shah as leader of a successor government in Kabul has unnerved some mullahs that this may mark a trend in restoring deposed monarchies in the region
These are difficult moments for the Tehran leadership. On the one hand most of Iran’s ruling mullahs secretly pray for a US victory against the Taleban. They know that the Taleban, and their strict version of religion, represent an ideological rival for Khomeinism. The rivalry recalls that between the Soviet Union and Communist China in the 1960s when each claimed to represent the only true form of the shared ideology.
While secretly hoping for an American victory, the mullahs also take a dim view of Washington’s perseverance. They fear that the US, encouraged or fooled by Pakistan, may settle for a half-victory that would leave the Taleban in power in some modified form. From Tehran’s point of view, the worst-case scenario would be an alliance between a neo-Taleban group and the US with Pakistan acting as the go-between.
Thus Tehran wants to keep its options open. Some key figures in the establishment insist that the Afghan imbroglio could provide Tehran with an opportunity to initiate an open dialogue with the US. Both nations belong to the so-called six-plus-two group of nations that consists of Afghanistan’s neighbors plus Russia and the US. Thus it is perfectly normal that they should discuss matters related not only to the conduct of the current war but also to the future system in Afghanistan. Such discussion could help with confidence building that could later be followed with talks on issues of bilateral interest.
Some timid moves in that direction have already taken place. Tehran’s ambassador at the UN has already met with a group of congressmen and senators in Washington — an unprecedented event since 1978. The fact that the invitation came from Sen. Arlen Spencer, a Jewish politician and a leading campaigner for Israel in Washington, shows that Tehran is prepared to ignore its anti-Israeli propaganda when it comes to its own interests.
Does all this mean that the planned anti-American demonstrations are nothing but a smokescreen for a secret rapprochement with Washington? It is too early to tell. The planned show of "popular rage" may be needed to frighten the regime’s opponents, especially among the youth, who are trying to seize control of the streets in the same way that Khomeini’s supporters did in 1978-79. The show may also be designed to isolate the genuine reformists within the establishment who believe that there can be no real change in Iran until normal relations are restored with Washington. The US-led sanctions are rightly regarded as the principal cause of Iran’s economic decline, translated in part in the form of massively rising unemployment.
Some pro-reform figures insist that the time has come for Iran to patch up relations with the US and help get rid of the two deadliest enemies of Khomeinism: the Taleban regime in Kandahar and President Saddam Hussein’s government in Baghdad. "Anyone with any understanding of our national interests would know that it is in Iran’s vital interest to have the Taleban and Saddam Hussein removed from power," says a pro-reform member of the Islamic Majlis. "It is also clear that Iran alone cannot get rid of either of those threats. If the US does it for us, why should we complain?"
The idea of an eventual rapprochement, let alone a full-blown alliance, with the US is rejected by many powerful figures in Tehran. In a speech last week, Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani, who challenged Khatami for the presidency last June, accused Khatami of " softness" toward " The American Great Satan." He argues that the US may well help achieve Iran’s twin aims of getting rid of Saddam Hussein and Mullah Omar but would not let the Khomeinist revolution reap the benefits. "Letting the Great Satan change regimes in this region will set a dangerous precedent," he says. " If they remove one or, worse still, two, why should they stop when it comes to the third?"
Twenty-three years after the seizure of the American hostages in Tehran the issue of relations with Washington remains as burning as ever.
