In the past few days, Palestinian President Yasser Arafat has met with the Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres several times — first at a Middle East forum in Madrid and then on Monday at a conference of European Union and Mediterranean countries in Brussels. In both, the EU has acted as an enthusiastic midwife, hoping to breathe some life back into stillborn peace process.
There is no reason to doubt the EU’s commitment. Led by its current president, Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, it has put considerable effort to get the process back on the road, liaising with the Americans, the Russians, the UN and, not least, the Arab states.
Nonetheless, it is simply not possible to hold out any hope that this present round of contacts between Arafat and Peres will break the deadlock. That is because the Israelis continue to make totally unrealistic demands of the Palestinians as a precondition to full-scale negotiations. The insistence that Arafat outlaw groups such as Islamic Jihad and Hamas presents him with an impossibility. There is no way in the current climate that he can do that, even if he wanted to. Hamas and Islamic Jihad command significant public support among ordinary Palestinians who have lost faith in the peace process precisely because of the way in which the Israelis have repeatedly sabotaged it since Ariel Sharon became premier.
As for their other precondition, that there first be an end to attacks by Palestinian militants, it stands logic on its head. The demand hands the initiative to those Palestinian hard-liners who do not want any negotiations whatsoever, who imagine that permanent conflict will ultimately result in the complete destruction and elimination of Israel. They can carry on with their attacks, knowing that every attack knocks back any chance of a settlement.
The biggest impediment though is Ariel Sharon. While he remains Israeli prime minister, there is no possibility of peace breaking out. He has consistently used Palestinian militancy as a wrecking device to sabotage a peace process he fears because it means Israeli concessions. He is determined not give up another inch of occupied territory and to prevent a Palestinian state from becoming reality. Now that support for Israel in the US is slipping and Washington appears committed to the creation of a Palestinians state, his determination to prevent the peace process being reactivated will be all the greater.
There is one last reason for being less than dewy eyed about the EU’s efforts for peace. The idea that with the Americans involved in the war against international terrorism and Afghanistan, it should be the Europeans who deal with the Palestinian-Israeli problem may make sense in Washington and in Europe’s capitals, but it misses a vital point. The US worries that taking the lead in reactivating negotiations may be seen as a concession forced upon it by the events of Sept. 11, but the simple fact is that they alone have the leverage with the Israelis to kick start the peace process back into action. The Europeans carry no clout at all with the Israelis. And it is the Israelis who have to make the concessions. They hold all the cards. Only when they give some of them up will there be a chance of peace.
