There was a time when one of the first lessons in journalism was to avoid predicting the future or dwelling on the past. The future was the realm of soothsayers while the past was best left to historians. The journalist’s job was to deal with the present.
The advent of instant global information changed all that. The present becomes the past before it has happened while the future invades us from all directions. Before the war is over in Afghanistan we are told about what would be the next war, and the one after. Politicians have understood this. This is why we read about what this or that leader is going to say or do, not what he has actually said and done. As soon as a leader takes over, he becomes history, with journalists trying to find out who will succeed him. The other day, Argentina’s President Fernando de la Rua was forced out of office before journalists could analyze his new program of reform presented hours earlier. Even as he fled the presidential palace in a helicopter, he was on his mobile phone, discussing terms for publishing his memoirs!
Not surprisingly, editors are no longer interested in what is happening now because people have seen it on TV, or what has already happened because few people have the time to ponder the past. What is emerging is a school of future-oriented journalism that pretends to tell readers or audiences what is going to happen.
Although a journalist of the old style, I have to recycle myself to stay in business. This is why, instead of being in Kabul right now to tell you what is happening, I am sitting in London predicting the events of the coming year. And all that without even a crystal ball.
Does anyone know what is going to happen within the next 12 months? The honest answer must be: No. The beauty, and the terror, of real life is that it is unpredictable. Imagine what would happen if we had the script in advance, both in our private lives and in the broader bedlam of humanity!
Unable to say what will happen, a student of world events could, nevertheless, speculate about what could happen.
So here are some of the things that could happen in the coming year. According to the International Crisis Group in Brussels, there are 62 conflicts of varying intensity around the world. Almost half of these affect Muslims in one way or another. It is possible that some of these could explode into bigger proportions, much like semi-dormant volcanoes that erupt into activity with no prior warning. The fact, that there is no mechanism to deal with these conflicts means that there could be no serious attempt at resolving them until the explosion has taken place. Afghanistan was one example.
Every conflict, in turn, produces new refugees. Thus we must expect to see even more refugees in the coming year. Already some 150 million people live in countries other than their own while only 25 million are officially classified as refugees. Of these almost 80 percent are Muslims. Again there is no credible international mechanism, and certainly no global system of cooperation, to cope with what is one of the most tragic issues of our age.
One conflict likely to remain in the headlines is the Palestinian struggle for independence. My guess is that the economic cost of the conflict combined with the political bankruptcy of both Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat — in the sense that neither has a credible program either for peace or war — could translate into the emergence of new leadership groups on both sides. And that, in turn, could open new vistas for solving what is, in fact, a classic colonial problem.
Prospects for the global economy remain grim. Even if the promised recovery starts next spring, it would take at least 18 months before the lift-up is felt throughout the world. Since the Sept. 11 attacks, an estimated 18 million jobs have disappeared in the 30 leading nations alone.
The ripple effects will take time to impact other economies. I shudder at the thought of what could happen to the world’s 45 poorest nations, most of them in Africa, that were just beginning to raise their heads above water.
The OPEC nations will also be in deep trouble as oil prices appear stuck to their lowest levels in a generation. If prices were to fall below $14 per barrel, several OPEC members, including some of the more powerful, could be in dire straits.
The coming year will further reveal the weaknesses of the global economic system. The formidable productive machine created by the West and Japan needs a constant expansion of markets. But the concentration of almost 90 percent of the world’s ready purchasing power in just 30 countries imposes severe limits to market growth. That, in turn, fosters recession in the industrialized world. The only way out is to create new purchasing power in countries where this does not exist. In other words, the West can become richer only if it helps the poor nations become less poor, transforming them into new consumers.
In the coming year look for the breakdown of the bipartisan spirit in the United States and a return to bitter power struggle in Washington. Don’t be surprised if the Republicans lose control not only of the Senate but also of the House of Representatives next November.
Also worth watching is Iran which, I believe, is heading toward a major crisis in 2001. Some say this is a pre-insurrectionary phase. May be. What is certain is that the reform movement, first acknowledged with President Muhammad Khatami’s election in 1997 and reconfirmed last year, may no longer practice the politics of patience and prudence.
European Union will face the challenge of the new currency, the euro that, I guess, is going to have a very bumpy ride for some time. The Sept. 11 attacks had no impact on the global balance of power. But its aftermath changed some traditional notions about the region. One thing is certain: a new political architecture for the region will be at the center of many discussions in 2001. Whether these will lead to any concrete action, however, remains to be seen. New partnership patterns are already emerging here and there while old ones appear more fragile than ever.
Will Afghanistan drop out of the headlines? For the sake of the Afghan people I hope so. But I doubt this will be the case. Mischief making by Pakistan and Iran could reignite the Afghan feuds while the US may lose interest.
Let’s have another guess: Iraq will be under the red-eye next year with a change of regime in Baghdad becoming a more urgent priority not only in Washington but in a number of other key capitals, including some in the region. How all this will happen, however, remains to be decided. I will let you know when I learn more!
What about good news?
There will be some. The spread of fiber-optic information transmission is one, while new drugs for AIDS, now the single biggest killer of young people in Africa, will be marketed next autumn. The unprecedented explosion of scientific discoveries and technological advances that began three decades ago is certain to continue in 2001. For many decades the only good news has come from science and technology while politics, religion and even culture, have often been sources of bad news. There is no reason why that pattern should be reversed next year.
Well, happy New Year all the same.
