The dove of peace has tried to nest in Sri Lanka before, only to be driven away by renewed violence. However, there is a quiet optimism that this time, the bird is really wanted and will stay. Twenty years of ethnic violence which has cost in excess of 60,000 lives may be on the verge of ending.
What makes the latest peace initiative different is that Sri Lanka has a government that was elected on a peace ticket. From its very first day in office, it began to put the policies of peace into effect. The response from the Tamil rebels in the north and east of the island was immediate. They declared a unilateral cease-fire which the new government of Ranil Wickramasinghe’s United National Party matched. That cease-fire has just been renewed by the Tamils until Feb. 24 and once again the Sri Lankan government has followed suit. The object is to prepare the way for a peace conference.
If there is one certainty about the awful ethnic conflict, it is that neither side has the power to defeat the other militarily. Therefore, the only lasting resolution must come through negotiations. The electorate appreciated that and, in choosing Wickremesinghe, they have sought to draw a line under 20 years of fruitless armed conflict. It can now, with justice, be argued that no previous Sri Lankan government has had such an overwhelming mandate for peace. But this, by itself, would be useless were it not for a change in attitude on the Tamil side as well. There is a growing perception among the Tamil leadership that the arrival of the United National Party government represents the best chance for a negotiated peace.
There are other forces at work here. The Indian government is anxious to see a settlement, and international donors are becoming impatient at the failure of the two communities to reach for peace.
Most significantly, Norwegian diplomats have been plugging away patiently for three years, getting to understand the issues thoroughly and earn the trust of the personalities involved. They withdrew to the sidelines when the last Sri Lankan government abandoned talks and resumed the fruitless campaign for a military solution. But the Norwegians never went away. Their presence now, with their chief negotiator Eric Solheim, is a major factor in the rising optimism. It is widely believed that it is thanks to Solheim that the Tamils have been persuaded to accept negotiations without preconditions.
Much can still go wrong. If the process becomes too drawn out, if real progress is not made with the talks, the forces of violence on both sides will be given the opportunity to regroup. It is an awful truth, visible in bitter conflicts elsewhere in the world, that certain participants on both sides, who have known only conflict for almost a generation, find themselves fearful of peace. They are reluctant to embrace the new world that peace will bring, a world in which their own role will suddenly become insignificant.
The negotiators on both sides of the ethnic divide in Sri Lanka cannot allow these hard-liners back into the political process. They have the best opportunity ever to bring this conflict to an end through negotiations. They must not let it slip from their grasp.
