Rajnath Singh, Uttar Pradesh’s BJP chief minister who resigned yesterday after his party’s electoral debacle in the just concluded assembly elections in four Indian states, told the Times of India before the elections that if his party lost in UP, Pakistan President Gen. Musharraf would interpret it as a loss of mass support for India’s campaign against terrorism. We don’t how Musharraf has taken the BJP’s discomfiture, but the UP’s voters seem to have dismissed Singh’s words for the gibberish that it was.
The BJP which heads the national government in New Delhi has lost to its rivals in three states, where it was in power singly or in coalition, including the politically prestigious Uttar Pradesh. This in spite of a standoff with Pakistan, a factor which always works to the advantage of the ruling party. This in spite of calls by the party’s front organizations to construct a temple in the UP city of Ayodhya at the spot where the Babri Mosque was demolished by thousands of Hindu zealots in 1992. This in spite of a change of guard in UP and Uttaranchal.
The BJP now controls only four of India’s 30-odd states against 13 by the Congress. True, it remains the largest single party in the national Parliament and its coalition allies are not going to withdraw support in the absence of a viable alternative. There is no sign yet that the Congress can provide one in the immediate future. Though Sonia Gandhi’s party has captured power in Punjab and Uttaranchal, its dismal performance in UP does not hold out much hope. But that is cold comfort to the BJP whose image as the dominant party has been dented. From now on, the party will be on the defensive making more and more compromises to keep its allies together.
Of course, there is no immediate threat to the stability of the Vajpayee government. But there is no denying that his party is suffering from a deeper malaise than its leadership is ready to admit. BJP’s main election plank was terrorism and national security as though it had a monopoly over patriotism. Emotive issues like the Ram temple may have helped it to come to power, but no party can sustain itself on sterile rhetoric. The BJP seems to have learned this lesson. One indication is the federal government’s warning yesterday to hard-line Hindus against going ahead with their plan to forcefully construct a Hindu temple on the disputed site at Ayodhya. This should be good news to whoever forms the next government in UP. Already there is an impasse because of the fractured nature of the verdict with no single party gaining absolute majority in the UP Assembly. The Samajwadi Party of former Defense Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav is the largest party in the 403-member Assembly. The SP needs over 60 MLAs to reach the magic figure of 202 to form a ministry. With 99 seats, former Chief Minister Mayawati’s BSP can cross the half-way mark if BJP, with 107 seats, provides support to it. The choice before the BJP is to help Mayawati, whom it fought hard in the elections, to form a ministry or sit in the opposition. The SP and Congress, both secular parties, will be natural allies. But the Congress fears allying with Mulayam could again erode its support base.
It is not yet clear what will be the shape of the government in UP. The only thing certain is that no ministry is going to last its full term.
